The Philadelphia Phillies are currently occupying last place in the National League East. While they hung on to unrealistic hopes of contending last season, they appear to be facing up to reality this year. It’s time for the Phillies to rebuild their aging roster, and their farm system could desperately use some fresh faces. Ace pitchers Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels are receiving plenty of interest. Either would could make a big difference for a contending team.
Lee has been one of the five best pitchers in baseball since 2008. The 35 year-old hurler was having an excellent 2014 season before hitting the disabled list with an elbow injury. Through ten starts he was striking out 21.1 percent of hitters with a miniscule 3.1 percent walk rate.
That’s par for the course for the left-hander, who pounds the zone with a fastball and cutter while mixing in a curveball and changeup. He rarely walks anyone, induces plenty of groundballs, and while his contact rate is higher than the major league average, he throws so many strikes that he consistently manages high strikeout rates.
It’s less likely that the Phillies will deal Hamels, who is under contract for approximately $22 million a year through 2018 with an option for 2019. The 30 year-old left-hander has been very durable and very good since slotting into the rotation full-time in 2007.
Since then he’s averaged over 200 innings per year while posting between 3.5 and 4.6 fWAR. His walk rate of 8.6 percent is the highest he’s posted since his 23 start debut in 2006. Nevertheless, he’s managed a 2.93 ERA with similar peripherals thanks to a 24.1 percent strikeout rate and a 48.6 percent ground ball rate.
Hamels’ changeup has long been one of the best pitches in the game, and the 2014 season is no exception. Hitters have swung and missed at 27.5 percent of his changeups.
He missed some time at the beginning of the year with biceps tendonitis, but he appears to be healthy. His fastball velocity has remained steady throughout his career. That contract might not look too pretty in a few years, but for now Hamels is one of the best pitchers in the game and just a shade behind a healthy Cliff Lee.
Unlike Lee, the Phillies might see Hamels as being in their long-term plans, making them more hesitant to deal him. While his contract doesn’t allow for much in the way of surplus value, an acquiring team would get an ace-level pitcher for the foreseeable future.
He might be more difficult to pry away than Lee, whose contract will run out after next season. Still, the Phils would be wise to deal him away if they can get a big return. This team isn’t close to contending and needs a rebuild badly. Trading two star pitchers will hurt in the short run, but they aren’t on the verge of playoff contention in any case.
