Boston Red Sox’ Mike Napoli Hits Big Home Run

Somebody finally scored off Detroit Tigers pitcher Justin Verlander. In the 7th inning of Game Three of the ALCS, Boston Red Sox first baseman Mike Napoli drove a fastball into the seats in left center field. The home run would be the difference in the game, as the Red Sox won, 1-0.

Verlander had previously pitched 21.1 scoreless innings in the 2013 playoffs with 31 strikeouts. Napoli was a strikeout victim in each of his first two at-bats, and he struck out three times in Game One.

Napoli strikes out a lot. He was 4th in the AL in strikeouts in 2013, and on a rate basis, only Chris Carter struck out more frequently. Verlander strikes out a lot of hitters, and he throws very hard. In the playoffs, his fastball has averaged over 95 miles per hour.

Hitters have whiffed at over twenty percent of Verlander’s heaters this postseason, and Napoli swings and misses at the hard stuff pretty often. In 2013, he whiffed on nearly one-third of his swings against fastballs. Leading up to his at-bat against Verlander, he had missed on nine of his 15 swings in the series.

Overall, he had six strikeouts and a walk in his seven plate appearances.

Against the heat he whiffs even more frequently. Of the 202 fastballs over 95 miles per hour that Napoli has seen, he’s taken 88 balls, and 34 have been called strikes. That leaves us with 80 swings. Of those, we have 34 swinging strikes, and 32 foul balls.

When he managed to make contact, Napoli hit the heat for power, of the remaining 16 balls put into play, we have three doubles and two homeruns.

The pitch Napoli sent over the fence was almost exactly down the middle. Sure Napoli still whiffs on 16 percent of fastballs downs the middle, but this is where he can tap into his power. For his career, Napoli has a .729 slugging percentage when he makes contact, and unsurprisingly, these numbers improve on pitches over the heart of the plate.

The Napoli-Verlander matchup is a great example of how slim the margin of error is, even for pitchers with dominant stuff like Verlander. Napoli struggles against heat, and everybody struggles against Verlander.

In his two previous plate appearances, he looked overmatched, and when the went to 1-2 after Napoli swung through a fastball, it looked like he was headed for another strikeout.

But, Verlander missed up with a fastball, and Napoli finally managed to make contact. When he does that, he’s dangerous, no matter how overwhelmed he looked in previous at-bats.

In a series where their hitters have struck out in 43 percent of their plate appearances, the Red Sox are 2-1, largely on the strength of two swings.