Geo Group (NYSE:GEO) Issues Q4 2026 Earnings Guidance

Geo Group (NYSE:GEO) updated its fourth quarter 2026 earnings guidance on Thursday. The company provided earnings per share guidance of 0.280-0.310 for the period, compared to the consensus earnings per share estimate of 0.330. The company issued revenue guidance of $758.0 million-$808.0 million. Geo Group also updated its FY 2026 guidance to 1.270-1.320 EPS.

Analyst Upgrades and Downgrades

Several analysts recently weighed in on the company. Zacks Research raised Geo Group from a “hold” rating to a “strong-buy” rating in a report on Monday, July 20th. Wall Street Zen downgraded Geo Group from a “buy” rating to a “hold” rating in a report on Saturday, July 25th. Northland Securities boosted their target price on shares of Geo Group from $30.00 to $40.00 and gave the company an “outperform” rating in a research report on Friday, June 26th. Weiss Ratings raised shares of Geo Group from a “hold (c)” rating to a “hold (c+)” rating in a research report on Tuesday, June 9th. Finally, JonesTrading boosted their price objective on shares of Geo Group from $33.00 to $40.00 and gave the company a “buy” rating in a report on Thursday. One analyst has rated the stock with a Strong Buy rating, two have issued a Buy rating and one has given a Hold rating to the company’s stock. According to MarketBeat, Geo Group has an average rating of “Buy” and a consensus target price of $40.00.

Geo Group Price Performance

Shares of Geo Group stock traded up $0.25 during midday trading on Friday, hitting $30.39. 342,023 shares of the company traded hands, compared to its average volume of 2,109,680. The stock has a market cap of $4.06 billion, a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.50, a PEG ratio of 1.87 and a beta of 0.79. The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.06, a quick ratio of 1.75 and a current ratio of 1.75. The firm’s fifty day moving average price is $29.11 and its 200-day moving average price is $21.65. Geo Group has a 12 month low of $12.51 and a 12 month high of $32.25.

Geo Group (NYSE:GEO) last released its quarterly earnings data on Thursday, August 6th. The real estate investment trust reported $0.37 earnings per share for the quarter, beating the consensus estimate of $0.29 by $0.08. The company had revenue of $732.07 million for the quarter, compared to the consensus estimate of $721.43 million. Geo Group had a return on equity of 9.43% and a net margin of 10.00%.Geo Group’s revenue for the quarter was up 15.1% on a year-over-year basis. During the same quarter last year, the business posted $0.22 EPS. As a group, sell-side analysts forecast that Geo Group will post 1.2 earnings per share for the current year.

More Geo Group News

Here are the key news stories impacting Geo Group this week:

• Positive Sentiment: Second-quarter results exceeded expectations. GEO reported adjusted earnings of $0.37 per share, ahead of the roughly $0.28–$0.29 consensus, while revenue rose 15.1% year over year to $732.1 million, topping estimates of approximately $721.4 million. GEO Group Q2 Earnings and Revenues Beat Estimates
• Positive Sentiment: Full-year guidance was raised above consensus. GEO now expects 2026 EPS of $1.27–$1.32, compared with consensus of $1.22, and revenue of $3.0–$3.1 billion. Management also outlined net income guidance of $168 million–$175 million and expects additional ICE facility activations by the end of 2026, supporting potential revenue growth. GEO 2026 Net Income Guidance and ICE Facility Activations
• Positive Sentiment: Analyst sentiment improved. JonesTrading raised its price target from $33 to $40 and maintained a Buy rating, citing the company’s earnings performance, guidance and operational updates. JonesTrading Raises GEO Price Target
• Neutral Sentiment: Expansion activity is becoming more visible. GEO has posted hiring opportunities connected with a planned ICE detention facility in Colorado, indicating progress toward facility activation but also highlighting the company’s dependence on government contracts. GEO Hiring for Colorado ICE Facility
• Negative Sentiment: Fourth-quarter EPS guidance was below expectations. GEO forecast fourth-quarter EPS of $0.28–$0.31 versus consensus of $0.33, creating a near-term earnings concern despite stronger full-year guidance. Third-quarter EPS guidance of $0.35–$0.37 was above the $0.30 consensus, making the outlook mixed. GEO Q2 Earnings Beat and Guidance
• Negative Sentiment: Regulatory and reputational risks remain. Lawmakers have demanded answers from ICE and GEO regarding alleged violations at the Moshannon Valley Processing Center, which could increase scrutiny of GEO’s detention operations and government-contract exposure. Lawmakers Question Moshannon Valley Processing Center

Institutional Investors Weigh In On Geo Group

A number of institutional investors have recently made changes to their positions in GEO. EntryPoint Capital LLC acquired a new stake in shares of Geo Group during the fourth quarter worth $250,000. Los Angeles Capital Management LLC bought a new position in Geo Group during the fourth quarter worth $359,000. CIBC Bancorp USA Inc. bought a new stake in Geo Group in the 3rd quarter valued at about $296,000. Entropy Technologies LP acquired a new stake in Geo Group in the 3rd quarter valued at $353,000. Finally, Corient Private Wealth LLC acquired a new position in shares of Geo Group during the second quarter valued at about $385,000. Institutional investors own 76.10% of the company’s stock.

About Geo Group

The GEO Group (NYSE:GEO) is a leading provider of correctional, detention and community reentry services to government agencies around the world. As a real estate investment trust, the company specializes in the design, financing, development and operation of secure facilities for adult and juvenile offenders, immigration detainees and individuals requiring mental health treatment or substance abuse programming. GEO’s integrated service model also encompasses electronic monitoring, rehabilitative programming and post-release supervision aimed at reducing recidivism and enhancing public safety.

GEO’s portfolio spans a range of facility types, including medium- and maximum-security correctional institutions, residential reentry centers, mental health treatment units and immigration detention centers.