Geo Group (NYSE:GEO) Posts Earnings Results, Beats Estimates By $0.08 EPS

Geo Group (NYSE:GEO) released its quarterly earnings data on Thursday. The real estate investment trust reported $0.37 EPS for the quarter, topping analysts’ consensus estimates of $0.29 by $0.08, FiscalAI reports. Geo Group had a net margin of 10.31% and a return on equity of 10.42%. The company had revenue of $732.07 million during the quarter, compared to the consensus estimate of $721.43 million. During the same period last year, the firm earned $0.22 EPS. The firm’s revenue for the quarter was up 15.1% compared to the same quarter last year.

Here are the key takeaways from Geo Group’s conference call:

• Strong second-quarter performance: Revenue rose 15% year over year to $732.1 million, net income increased 63% to $47.5 million, and adjusted EBITDA grew 20% to approximately $142 million. Management raised full-year 2026 guidance to $2.95-$3.05 billion in revenue, $168-$175 million in net income, and $550-$560 million in adjusted EBITDA.
• ICE expansion is accelerating: GEO expects its Big Horn and Rivers facilities to be activated by year-end 2026, adding approximately 2,508 beds and $165 million in annual revenue once normalized in early 2027. The company also has roughly 4,500 additional idle high-security beds that could generate more than $250 million in annual revenue if reactivated.
• The ISAP electronic-monitoring program is seeing a favorable mix shift toward higher-priced GPS ankle monitors and case management, helping offset lower contract pricing. GPS-monitored participants increased to approximately 54,000 from 17,000 in early 2025, while management said future policy changes could drive additional enrollment.
• GEO is exploring the potential sale of several turnkey facilities to ICE while retaining long-term support-services contracts. Management believes transactions could be valued similarly to recent industry deals and plans to use any proceeds for debt reduction, share repurchases, and other shareholder-focused uses.
• The Graceville and Bay managed-only Florida contracts, worth approximately $100 million in combined annual revenue, were delayed to July 1, 2027 because of unresolved budgetary issues. GEO also received no second-quarter revenue from its skip-tracing contract, although it expects the program to begin ramping in the second half of 2026.

Geo Group Price Performance

NYSE GEO traded up $0.59 during trading hours on Friday, reaching $30.73. 1,577,707 shares of the company’s stock were exchanged, compared to its average volume of 1,477,025. The stock has a market cap of $4.11 billion, a PE ratio of 14.50, a price-to-earnings-growth ratio of 1.66 and a beta of 0.79. Geo Group has a one year low of $12.51 and a one year high of $32.25. The firm has a fifty day moving average of $29.27 and a 200-day moving average of $21.72. The company has a current ratio of 1.65, a quick ratio of 1.75 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.00.

Hedge Funds Weigh In On Geo Group

Several institutional investors have recently bought and sold shares of the business. Cooper Creek Partners Management LLC grew its holdings in shares of Geo Group by 32.7% during the third quarter. Cooper Creek Partners Management LLC now owns 4,974,772 shares of the real estate investment trust’s stock worth $101,933,000 after purchasing an additional 1,224,847 shares during the last quarter. State Street Corp raised its holdings in shares of Geo Group by 2.6% in the fourth quarter. State Street Corp now owns 4,961,725 shares of the real estate investment trust’s stock valued at $79,983,000 after buying an additional 126,609 shares during the last quarter. Continental General Insurance Co. raised its holdings in shares of Geo Group by 10.1% in the fourth quarter. Continental General Insurance Co. now owns 4,684,474 shares of the real estate investment trust’s stock valued at $75,514,000 after buying an additional 430,000 shares during the last quarter. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. lifted its position in Geo Group by 6.0% during the 4th quarter. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. now owns 4,608,579 shares of the real estate investment trust’s stock worth $74,290,000 after buying an additional 261,179 shares in the last quarter. Finally, UBS Group AG lifted its position in Geo Group by 56.5% during the 3rd quarter. UBS Group AG now owns 3,603,288 shares of the real estate investment trust’s stock worth $73,831,000 after buying an additional 1,300,139 shares in the last quarter. Institutional investors own 76.10% of the company’s stock.

Analyst Upgrades and Downgrades

Several research firms recently issued reports on GEO. Zacks Research raised shares of Geo Group from a “hold” rating to a “strong-buy” rating in a research report on Monday, July 20th. Northland Securities lifted their price objective on Geo Group from $30.00 to $40.00 and gave the company an “outperform” rating in a report on Friday, June 26th. Weiss Ratings upgraded Geo Group from a “hold (c)” rating to a “hold (c+)” rating in a research note on Tuesday, June 9th. JonesTrading increased their target price on Geo Group from $33.00 to $40.00 and gave the stock a “buy” rating in a report on Thursday. Finally, Wall Street Zen downgraded Geo Group from a “buy” rating to a “hold” rating in a research report on Saturday, July 25th. One investment analyst has rated the stock with a Strong Buy rating, two have given a Buy rating and one has assigned a Hold rating to the company. According to MarketBeat, the company presently has a consensus rating of “Buy” and an average target price of $40.00.

Trending Headlines about Geo Group

Here are the key news stories impacting Geo Group this week:

• Positive Sentiment: Second-quarter results beat expectations: GEO reported adjusted earnings of $0.37 per share, above the $0.28–$0.29 consensus range, while revenue rose 15.1% year over year to approximately $732.1 million, exceeding estimates. GEO Group Q2 Earnings and Revenues Beat Estimates
• Positive Sentiment: 2026 outlook was raised above analyst expectations: GEO now expects full-year EPS of $1.27–$1.32, compared with consensus of $1.22, and revenue of $3.0 billion–$3.1 billion. Management also projects third-quarter EPS of $0.35–$0.37, above the $0.30 consensus estimate. The GEO Group Reports Second Quarter Results and Updates Full Year 2026 Guidance
• Positive Sentiment: ICE expansion and analyst support are strengthening the growth narrative: GEO is targeting additional ICE facility activations by the end of 2026 and outlined expected 2026 net income of $168 million–$175 million. JonesTrading raised its price target from $33 to $40 and maintained a Buy rating, implying further upside from the referenced price. GEO Outlines 2026 Net Income Guidance
• Neutral Sentiment: Momentum screens highlight continued price strength: Recent performance has substantially outpaced the stock’s longer-term moving average, although such technical signals do not necessarily indicate that the gains will continue. GEO Group Price Strength Analysis
• Negative Sentiment: Some quarterly guidance was weaker: Fourth-quarter EPS guidance of $0.28–$0.31 was below the $0.33 consensus estimate, creating a modest counterpoint to the otherwise favorable outlook. GEO is also facing questions from lawmakers regarding alleged violations at its Moshannon Valley facility, which could present reputational or regulatory risk. Questions Regarding Moshannon Valley Processing Center

About Geo Group

The GEO Group (NYSE:GEO) is a leading provider of correctional, detention and community reentry services to government agencies around the world. As a real estate investment trust, the company specializes in the design, financing, development and operation of secure facilities for adult and juvenile offenders, immigration detainees and individuals requiring mental health treatment or substance abuse programming. GEO’s integrated service model also encompasses electronic monitoring, rehabilitative programming and post-release supervision aimed at reducing recidivism and enhancing public safety.

GEO’s portfolio spans a range of facility types, including medium- and maximum-security correctional institutions, residential reentry centers, mental health treatment units and immigration detention centers.