Duke Energy (NYSE:DUK) reported fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results highlighting higher earnings, an expanded capital plan, and continued progress converting large-load economic development opportunities into signed agreements.
2025 results and 2026 outlook
President and CEO Harry Sideris said the company delivered 2025 earnings per share (EPS) of $6.31, representing 7% growth over 2024 and finishing above the midpoint of its guidance range. Sideris credited the performance to the “strength of our regulated utilities,” operational execution, and investments aimed at reliability and grid hardening.
Capital plan expanded to $103 billion
Duke Energy increased its five-year capital plan by $16 billion to $103 billion, which management described as the largest fully regulated capital plan in the industry. CFO Brian Savoy said the plan is up 18% versus the prior plan and is expected to drive 9.6% earnings-based growth through 2030, more than 150 basis points higher than the previous outlook.
Savoy attributed the increase primarily to deeper investment in the “generation build cycle” as well as fuel security infrastructure to support future combined-cycle plants in the Carolinas. He also emphasized continued spending on grid reliability and resiliency.
On a question about the impact of the planned minority investment in Duke Energy Florida, Savoy said the 9.6% growth figure includes minority interest investments, and that excluding the Florida minority investment would reduce the CAGR to 8.8%. He added that proceeds from Brookfield’s investment are expected to reduce holding company interest expense relative to what it otherwise would have been.
Generation build, uprates, and optionality for nuclear
Sideris said 2026 priorities include advancing construction on new generation and increasing “speed to power” to support economic growth. Duke Energy plans to add approximately 14 gigawatts of incremental generation over the next five years. He said the company has been preparing for the build cycle for more than three years and has taken steps to secure long-lead-time equipment and workforce needs, including a framework agreement with GE Vernova for turbine procurement and what he described as a more programmatic approach with EPC vendors to drive efficiencies across multiple projects.
Management reiterated its “all-of-the-above” approach, including continued additions of battery and solar. Sideris said battery deployment is expected to ramp significantly, with approximately 4.5 gigawatts of battery additions through 2031.
On nuclear, Sideris said the company continues to evaluate new nuclear development while maintaining optionality. He noted that in December the company submitted an early site permit for a potential small modular reactor (SMR) at the Belews Creek site in North Carolina. He said Duke is taking a disciplined approach focused on limited licensing activities, reducing supply chain risk, and seeking solutions to mitigate financial risk for customers and investors before making any decision to proceed.
Management also discussed “uprate” opportunities totaling about 1,000 megawatts across the system. Sideris said most of the uprates are on the gas fleet, with about 300 megawatts of nuclear uprates and the remainder from hydro. He described these uprates as competitive versus new generation and said they can improve efficiency by delivering more megawatts for the same fuel.
Load growth, data centers, and customer protections
A major theme of the call was Duke Energy’s large-load pipeline, particularly data centers. Since the third-quarter call, Savoy said the company signed another 1.5 gigawatts of electric service agreements (ESAs), including customers such as Microsoft and Compass, bringing total secured data center load under ESAs to approximately 4.5 gigawatts.
Sideris and Savoy emphasized that the company is “risk-adjusting” its load forecast based on minimum billing demands embedded in contracts. Savoy said the 4.5 gigawatts of secured ESAs are expected to begin coming online in late 2027 and “really ramp in 2028,” which management cited as a key reason for the expected earnings inflection point. Savoy also said Duke’s late-stage pipeline is “about double” the secured amount, describing roughly 9 gigawatts moving through the funnel, with expectations for additional announcements during 2026.
Management repeatedly addressed affordability and the need to protect existing customers from costs tied to large-load projects. Savoy said ESA provisions include:
- Minimum billing requirements
- Termination charges
- Refundable capital advances
In response to a question about flexibility, Sideris said Duke has included contract provisions allowing for interruptibility/curtailment and backup generation, citing the ability to curtail load or have customers go on backup generation for “50 hours or so” per year as a tool to maintain reliability and speed interconnection.
Asked about how data center growth fits into longer-term load forecasts, management said data centers are becoming a larger component. Savoy said data centers are expected to comprise about 75% of the company’s economic development profile by the end of 2030, up from 50% a couple of quarters earlier. He also characterized enterprise long-term load growth of 3% to 4% as roughly one-third tied to residential and existing customers, with the remaining two-thirds related to economic development.
Regulatory, storms, and balance sheet metrics
Sideris opened the call by acknowledging employee response to recent winter storms and said the system performed well, pointing to the benefits of grid-hardening investments. On questions about storm costs, management said it was still compiling totals, but noted recovery mechanisms in the Carolinas and said it did not expect storm activity to affect 2026 guidance. Savoy added that the company budgets for storms and can defer costs for future recovery above certain deductible levels.
On regulatory matters, management highlighted recent South Carolina rate case orders that followed comprehensive settlements approved in December. In North Carolina, Duke said it is progressing requests for new multi-year rate plans that would take effect Jan. 1, 2027, covering grid and fleet investments and reflecting cost-control initiatives that management said have helped maintain a flat O&M cost structure despite inflation and asset growth. Sideris also said Duke intends to pursue settlements where possible but believes it has a strong case if litigation is required.
On credit and cash flow, Savoy reported 14.8% FFO to debt for 2025, citing timely storm recovery and improving operating cash flows driven by regulatory execution. The company forecasts approximately 14.5% FFO to debt in 2026 and reiterated a long-term target of 15%, which management said would be supported as proceeds from the Tennessee and Florida transactions are received.
Regarding funding, Savoy said the financing plan includes $10 billion of equity in the 2027 to 2030 timeframe, representing about 35% equity funding of the capital plan increase. He said the base plan assumes issuance through DRIP and ATM programs, while the company will also evaluate hybrids and other equity-content securities. Savoy said Brookfield’s minority investment in Duke Energy Florida and the sale of the Piedmont Tennessee business to Spire are expected to strengthen the credit profile and satisfy 2026 equity needs; management said it remains on track to close the Tennessee sale by the end of the first quarter and the first tranche of the Duke Energy Florida investment in early 2026.
The company also announced an investor relations leadership transition: Abby Motsinger is slated to become chief accounting officer and controller on March 1, and Mike Switzer will succeed her as head of investor relations while continuing to oversee corporate development.
About Duke Energy (NYSE:DUK)
Duke Energy Corporation is a U.S.-based electric power holding company headquartered in Charlotte, North Carolina. The company’s core business is the generation, transmission and distribution of electricity to residential, commercial and industrial customers. Duke Energy operates a mix of regulated electric utilities and non-regulated energy businesses, providing essential energy infrastructure and services across multiple states.
Its operating activities include owning and operating generation assets across a portfolio that encompasses nuclear, natural gas, coal, hydroelectric and an expanding array of renewable resources, as well as battery storage and grid modernization projects.
