Jake Arrieta dominated the Cincinnati Reds Tuesday night. The Chicago Cubs hurler threw his first career shutout, surrendering just one hit and one walk while fanning 13 hitters. It was the best performance in what has been an excellent season for the 28 year-old right-hander.
Arrieta broke into the major leagues with the Baltimore Orioles in 2010. In parts of four seasons with the O’s, he authored an ugly 5.46 ERA in 358 innings. He did show some promise in 2012, as he displayed a 22.0 percent strikeout rate and 3.65 xFIP despite a 6.20 ERA. However, after five ugly starts in 2013, in which he allowed 19 runs and walked 17 hitters in just 23.2 innings, the Orioles sent him to the Cubs along with Pedro Strop in exchange for Steve Clevenger and Scott Feldman.
He made nine starts with the Cubs in 2013, and was mediocre. Though his 3.66 ERA was solid, he had a pedestrian 17.4 percent strikeout rate and his walk rate of 11.3 percent was one of the higher marks in the majors. 2014 has been a different story. While he hasn’t thrown enough innings to qualify, his adjusted ERA is 11th best among hurlers that have thrown at least 140 innings, and his adjusted FIP is second best. Only Clayton Kershaw has been better on a per-inning basis.
Arrieta started grabbing everyone’s attention with a three start stretch from June 18 to June 30. First of all, he dominated the Miami Marlins, fanning 11 hitters in seven innings of one run ball, issuing just one walk. He followed that up with a strong performance against the Reds, notching nine punchouts in seven innings, while allowing two runs. Then, he faced off against the Boston Red Sox, and came within four outs of getting a no-hitter, adding in ten strikeouts.
Arrieta has emerged as a legitimate ace. His ZiPS and Steamer projections are on par with those for Oakland Athletics hurler Jeff Samardzija, who the Cubs traded away. The big right-hander has relied heavily on a cutter/slider. After throwing it on just 15 percent of his pitches last year, he’s nearly doubled his usage to 29 percent this year. It’s whiff rate is a strong 14.7 percent. That’s not too big a jump from prior seasons, but by throwing it more often, Arrieta has effectively complemented his mid 90s fastball. On a per pitch basis, it’s been one of the best breaking pitches in baseball.
The Cubs have found that one man’s trash can be another man’s treasure. They’ve scooped up pitchers such as Feldman, Arrieta and Jason Hammel for pennies on the dollar. They flipped Feldman and Hammel in trades, and Arrieta has emerged as an ace. With a host of talented young position players, this team could be very dangerous in 2015.
