Do the Oakland Athletics Have Enough Pitching?

The Oakland Athletics got off to a very strong start, and on August 9 they had a four game lead on the Anaheim Angels. Their 72-44 record was the best in baseball, and after acquiring Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel from the Chicago Cubs, they had recently traded for ace pitcher Jon Lester from the Boston Red Sox. From that point, the A’s have a woeful 11-22 record. While they are all but assured of a playoff spot, it’s a wild card berth they are looking at, rather than home field advantage all the way through.

Despite all the pitching the A’s have acquired, there are some big questions about their rotation. Lester has been as good as advertised. In nine starts he’s authored a 2.30 ERA with strikeout and walk rates of 22.7 percent and 5.6 percent. He’s one of the top starters in the American League.

Samardzija has also been very good, and while his ERA hasn’t been spectacular, his park-adjusted xFIP is actually better than Lester’s. He’s attacking the zone more than ever before, and has a minuscule 3.4 percent walk rate over 13 starts with the A’s. With a big ballpark, he’s pounding the zone with confidence.

However, the A’s have some issues beyond those two pitchers. Sonny Gray appears to be tiring. After striking out over 20 percent of hitters in the first four months of the season, his K-rates have dipped to 17.1 percent and 16.3 percent in August and September. The 24 year-old has seen his fastball velocity decline in that time. He’s already thrown more innings than last season, and may be running on fumes.

Likewise, teammate Scott Kazmir has seen his second half strikeout rate drop seven percentage points to 16.4 percent. In the same time, his walk rate has climbed from 5.9 percent to 8.8 percent. His fastball velocity is also dropping. Kazmir hasn’t thrown more than 152 innings since 2007, so there’s understandably some concern at this point. Right now he’s at 173.2 innings, and is making his 30th start for the first time in seven years.

Hammel, who was excellent with the Cubs, has imploded with the A’s. He’s authored an ugly 4.76 ERA in 11 starts, with an even worse 5.76 FIP. Right now it looks like the A’s bought very high on half a season of a pitcher that has a career ERA- of 108 in over 1100 innings. The right-hander is unlikely to have a spot in the A’s postseason rotation, meaning they will have to rely on the tiring Gray or Kazmir.

Of course, the A’s may not be so fortunate to have to deal with the issue of who makes their postseason rotation. They won’t catch the Angels, and as a result will have to focus on holding off the Kansas City Royals or the Seattle Mariners for the top wild card spot. They might have some magic left, but their position is much weaker than it was just five weeks ago.