It seemed likely that Texas Rangers outfielder Alex Rios would be dealt before the July 31st trade deadline. The Rangers have been out of contention for some time, and while Rios’ numbers have declined this season, he’s only two years removed from an excellent 2012 campaign where he clubbed 25 home runs. Furthermore, his 2013 season resulted in a solid 3.1 fWAR.
Last season the Chicago White Sox sent the 33 year-old Rios to the Rangers in exchange for a player to be named later, which turned out to be Leury Garcia. He’s under contract for $3.75 million over the remainder of the season with a $13.5 million team option for 2015 which includes a $1 million buyout.
It’s a high price tag for an older outfielder whose skills appear to be in decline. The Rangers recently placed Rios on revocable waivers.
Much of that is buoyed by an in-play batting average of .352 which is well above his career rate. In addition, his stolen base success rate has declined.
Last season he swiped 42 bags in 49 attempts, contributing eight runs on the bases. This year he’s stolen 16 bases in 25 attempts, and has added virtually no value on the basepaths. Defensive metrics indicate his outfield defense has dropped of as well.
Looking to the rest of the season, ZiPS and Steamer project similar lines for Rios. His projected slash line is .280/.315/.420. After an adjustment for a favorable home ball park, that is just a hair below the league average. As far as projections go, Rios isn’t an impact player.
However, an acquiring team could hope to catch lightning in a bottle as the New York Yankees did when they acquired Alfonso Soriano from the Chicago Cubs last season. Though his best seasons are behind him, it’s possible that Rios could go on a tear for 40-odd games and help propel his team toward a playoff berth. Of course, the same could be said of almost any major league regular.
Prior to the trade deadline, the San Francisco Giants, Cleveland Indians, Kansas City Royals, Seattle Mariners and Cincinnati Reds were among the teams that expressed interest in Rios. Seattle acquired Austin Jackson, and the Giants got Gerardo Parra from the Arizona Diamondbacks. The Indians, Royals and Reds could still be interested as neither of these teams made significant moves at the deadline.
Kansas City has stated that they are looking for a right-handed hitting outfielder, and Rios fits that mold. Meanwhile, the Reds are giving lots of playing time to Chris Heisey and Ryan Ludwick, and the Indians have not received more than 0.4 fWAR from any outfielder other than Michael Brantley.
Rios’ salary is a lot for any of these smaller market teams to take on, but he shouldn’t cost more than a low-level prospect. Finally, the Yankees could be in play as well, as Jacoby Ellsbury and Brett Gardner have been their only productive outfielders and the recently acquired Martin Prado might see time in the infield.
