The trade deadline is approaching, and trade talks are heating up. Earlier today, the New York Yankees traded for San Diego Padres third baseman Chase Headley, sending Yangervis Solarte and Rafael De Paula to the Friars. Headley had a sensational 2012 season, but his offensive production has dropped off since then. Two other players that have had star seasons in the not too distant past could also be moved before the July 31 deadline.
Matt Kemp, who nearly produced a 40-40 season in 2011 and Elvis Andrus, who had +4 win seasons in 2011 and 2012 might be on the move. However, their contracts could get in the way of a potential trade.
After his monster 2011 season where he batted .324/.399/.586 with 39 home runs, 40 stolen bases and 8.4 fWAR. Kemp has been besieged with injuries. He signed an eight year deal worth $160 million that offseason. He hit very well in 2012, with a .303/.367/.538 line and 23 home runs, but injuries limited him to 106 games.
His contract is one of the biggest albatrosses in the game, and though he would be able to help out an American League team at designated hitter, the Dodgers would probably have to eat a huge chunk of that salary to trade the 29 year-old.
The Seattle Mariners have been linked to Kemp since the offseason, but at this point, Marlon Byrd is a much smarter acquisition.
Andrus, who is in his 6th big league season, is still just 25. From an offensive standpoint, he hasn’t progressed like most fans and scouts thought he would. Other than his debut season in which he hit six home runs, his ISO has been below .100 every year. Thanks to fine defense and baserunning and good contact skills, he’s put together a couple of very good seasons. But, the last two seasons have seen his offensive output decrease. Since the beginning of the 2012 season, Andrus owns a .269/.322/.334 batting line, which rounds out to a 77 wRC+. Only four qualified hitters have a worse line.
Beginning in 2015, Andrus’ eight year deal kicks in, over which he is owed $118 million. That puts him under contract through the 2022 season, with a vesting option for 2023, at which point he will be 34.
Clearly the Rangers were banking on his power improving. His defensive value is declining for the second consecutive year, and after stealing 42 bases in 50 attempts, he’s only 20 for 30 this year. Presently he’s a solid-average shortstop, but that deal could start looking ugly pretty quickly, as defense and baserunning skills tend to age poorly.
The Yankees, Detroit Tigers, Mariners and possibly Los Angeles Dodgers could all use help at the shortstop position, it appears that Andrus’ cumbersome contract will prevent him from getting moved at the deadline.
In the long-term, it makes much more sense to trade contracts, rather than players. Even in their current disappointing states, Kemp and Andrus could help a contending team. However, unless their respective teams are willing to send a lot of cash along with them, they won’t get traded. Both Kemp and Andrus require a commitment that isn’t worth the short-term value they might be able to provide.
