Chicago Cubs ace pitcher Jeff Samardzija has enjoyed a very good 2014 season. Meanwhile, his team is sitting at 27-38, which puts them in prime positions to be sellers at the trade deadline. The Cubs are fielding plenty of offers for Samardzija, who is under control for the remainder of this year and 2015 before he hits free agency.
While his ERA from 2012-13 was slightly worse than the major league average, there were plenty of indicators that Samardzija had ace-level stuff. For one thing, his defense-independent stats were much better, as he posted a 24.1 percent strikeout rate and an 11.2 percent swinging strike rate that was on par with aces such as Clayton Kershaw and Stephen Strasburg. He combines mid 90’s heat with a good slider and splitter.
This season everything is aligning for Samardzija except for the run support. While his K-BB% is the same as last season, he’s getting more ground balls, and more fly balls are staying in the park. Accordingly, his park-adjusted ERA is 15th best in the major leagues. He’s throwing more fastballs, particularly two-seamers, which have led to plenty of quick ground ball outs. Though his strikeout rate was down slightly at the start of the season, he’s fanned 28 hitters over his last four starts, and his fastball velocity has ticked up.
The Boston Red Sox might be in the mix for a starting pitcher with Clay Buchholz and Felix Doubront on the disabled list and Jake Peavy being generally ineffective. Young arms Brandon Workman and Rubby de la Rosa have been very good in fill-in duty. Still, the Sox might seek another arm, particularly if they find themselves in a position to make a big playoff push. Their farm system is very well stocked. Mookie Betts appears unlikely to be moved, but a package involving Henry Owens or Garin Cecchini could attract some interest. Matt Barnes and Anthony Ranaudo also figure to be in play.
The Toronto Blue Jays are out to a big lead in the American League East thanks to a powerful offense. However, their pitching staff has been weak, as they own the third highest xFIP in the major leagues. Drew Hutchison and Mark Beuhrle have been very good, but it’s anyone’s guess as to how long Dustin McGowan can be relied on and Brandon Morrow and J.A. Happ have been ineffective and injured. Top pitching prospect Marcus Stroman likely won’t be dealt, as he’s recently moved into the Jays rotation. Aaron Sanchez, who was just promoted to Triple-A Buffalo despite struggling with his control is a prime trade candidate. He possesses excellent stuff but has struggled with his command. Depending on how hot the competition for Shark is, Sanchez alone might not be able to get a deal done.
The Colorado Rockies, Seattle Mariners and Baltimore Orioles could also be in play for Samardzija. Unfortunately for the Rockies, their recent slide makes playoff competition difficult, and their top pitching prospect, Eddie Butler, just went on the disabled list with shoulder stiffness. Despite a miserable offense, the Mariners are hanging around at a few games over .500. Most of their top prospects are pitchers, and if they return to health, James Paxton and Taijuan Walker might be better suited in the M’s rotation than as trade bait for the Shark.
The Orioles are in a similar position. With most of their starters being average or slightly worse, Samardzija would quickly become their ace. Kevin Gausman has an ugly 5.15 ERA in 23 major leagues appearances including eight starts, but he’s shown impressive stuff and a 22.1 percent strikeout rate. Dylan Bundy, who’s recovering from Tommy John surgery could be moved, as well as Hunter Harvey, an exciting prospect who is carving up Single-A hitters at the age of 19.
Competition is sure to be stiff for Samardzija. All of the above teams and likely a few others will be involved. Gone are the days when the Texas Rangers could get Elvis Andrus, Matt Harrison, Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Neftali Feliz for a rental of Mark Teixeira. Still, Samardzija should command a big return for the Cubs.
