The San Francisco Giants are owners of the best record in baseball as they sit in first place in the NL West with a 42-21 record and a 9.5 game lead on the Los Angeles Dodgers. With that cushion, Cool Standings gives them a 97 percent chance of reaching the playoffs, easily the best odds in the major leagues. Going into the 2014 season, the Giants were certainly expected to be contenders, but this was supposed to be the Dodgers division to lose.
The Giants are receiving big contributions from a variety of sources. Offseason pickup Tim Hudson possesses a 1.92 ERA that goes along with a 58.2 percent ground ball rate and a miniscule 3.4 percent walk rate. Madison Bumgarner continues to impress, and the 24 year-old has the highest strikeout rate of his career at 26.8 percent. Veteran Ryan Vogelsong has rebounded from an awful 2013 season where he pitched to a bloated 5.73 ERA to post a 3.39 mark.
On the offensive side, Michael Morse has clobbered the ball, compiling a .278/.329/.550 line with a team-leading 13 home runs. Hunter Pence, Brandon Belt and Angel Pagan have all hit very well, posting slash lines that are at least 30 percent better than the major league average. Brandon Crawford has supplemented his excellent defense with a much improved .250/.325/.445 line. That’s helped offset the slow starts of Buster Posey and Pablo Sandoval, as the Giants top hitters from seasons past have slash lines of .270/.338/.413 and .247/.296/.407, respectively.
Despite all their success, the Giants have not been dominant, at least not in the way that the Oakland Athletics have been. Their run differential of +65 is the second best mark in baseball, though it’s less than half of what the A’s have done. Beyond that, they rank just 21st in pitching WAR, and 9th in position player WAR. While Hudson and Vogelsong have pitched very well, it’s unrealistic to expect them to continue at this rate, and their peripherals suggest that. Morse probably isn’t one of the best hitters in baseball either.
The Giants have performed exceptionally well in high leverage situations, both from a hitting and pitching perspective. That’s lead to a lot of exciting wins, but it simply isn’t sustainable. Make no mistake, this is a very good team, and their first 63 games have all but guaranteed that they will be playing in October. But, a handful of teams around the league are better equipped to make a long postseason run.
