Domonic Brown had a torrid first half for the Philadelphia Phillies, hitting 23 homeruns. Before the All-Star break, the 25 year-old outfielder had a HR/PA rate of 6.0% and a HR/Contact rate of 8.0%.
His HR/FB ratio of 22.5% was 9th in the MLB, ahead of power hitters such as Mark Trumbo, Nelson Cruz, and Edwin Encarnacion. Brown hit 12 homeruns in the month of May, and on June 19, he was leading the NL in homeruns.
Even within the cozy confines of Citizens Bank Park, Brown’s power production seemed destined to regress after such a hot start, and it has. Before his achilles injury, Brown had 4 homeruns in the second half.
Going forward, Phillies fans have to wonder what kind of player Brown really is. Fielding metrics rate him as well below average, and his impact on the bases is minimal. As a bat-first player who hits for a low average and doesn’t walk very often, Brown must hit for power to be productive.
The plate discipline data from Fangraphs indicates that Brown has changed his approach from the previous three years, and morphed into a free swinging slugger.
| Year | O-Swing% | O-Contact% | Z-Contact% | Contact% | BB% |
| 2010-2012 | 27.7 | 68.8 | 86.3 | 80.7 | 10.4 |
| 2013 | 30.7 | 59.5 | 88.4 | 78.8 | 6.6 |
However, it’s unclear whether or not Brown is actually hitting the baseball much farther. Baseballheatmaps shows that Brown’s average flyball distance is just 283 feet, which is 135th among qualified hitters and behind noted power hitters such as Ryan Flaherty, Jose Tabata, and Pedro Florimon. Of the 81 hitters with at least 17 homeruns, Brown is 76th in average true distance per ESPN Home Run Tracker.
Prior to 2013, Brown hit just 12 homeruns in 492 major league plate appearances. Though Brown has flashed power over parts of seven minor league seasons, his overall HR/PA rate in the minor leagues is just 2.6%. Most likely Brown is another ultra-toolsy player who can have his moments but provides average value at best.
