Cardinals Fans Don’t Get Too Excited About Joe Kelly

It’s not outlandish to say that Joe Kelly has been a godsend for a struggling St. Louis Cardinals rotation. In 14 starts he has a 9-2 record and 2.14 ERA. His second-half ERA is more than two runs lower than that of Adam Wainwright. But, that’s where the good news ends and cynical types like me step in.

Kelly’s strikeout and walk rates of 12.9% and 9.4%, respectively, are some of the worst rates in the league.

His success has been built largely on a .272 BABIP, 7.1 HR/FB% and a  86.3 LOB%, numbers that are beyond his true talent level and bound for regression.

Despite averaging 95 mph with his fastball, Kelly does not have swing-and-miss stuff. His 5.6% swinging-strike rate is one of the lowest in the MLB and well below the average of 8.7%. His changeup and curveball occasionally show promise, but Kelly does not have the command of those pitches to use them to put away hitters.

A look at the plate discipline numbers provided by Fangraphs illustrates how Kelly’s stuff is lacking in the whiff department.

	O-Swing %	O-Contact	Z-Contact	Contact %	Zone %
Kelly	27.6%	69.3%	92.3%	84.9%	48.6%
MLB Average	29.6%	63.3%	87.4%	79.5%	49.2%

Though Kelly’s ERA as a starter is down significantly from the 3.74 he posted in 16 starts last season, he has actually pitched worse. His strikeouts are down, his walks are up, and his groundball rate is unchanged. The ERA difference from 2012 to 2013 is based on a BABIP 30 points lower, a HR/FB ratio five points lower, and a LOB% 15 points higher, hardly the stuff that would indicate real improvements.

If he makes a start in the playoffs, expect the Cardinals to keep him on a very short leash, as they have a deep bullpen, similar to the 2011 World Series squad.

Most likely, Kelly is not a starter in the Cardinals’ long term plans. He should return to the bullpen, where he has managed strikeout and walk rates of 21.3%, and 6.8%, respectively.