The National League West hosts a bevy of notable teams. The Los Angeles Dodgers have taken Baseball’s payroll critics by storm, signing every player it possibly can, including extended relatives and distinguished international and domestic ticket venders. By the time the deadline comes, they may sign whoever reads this for 10 times more than they’re worth.
And yet, even with: Hanley Ramirez, Adrian Gonzalez, Zack Greinke, Carl Crawford, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Brandon League, Josh Beckett and of course, Nick Punto, Los Angeles finds itself 38-43 and just 3.5 games out of first place. Add: Andre Ethier, Clayton Kershaw and Matt Kemp and you find yourself with approximately 700 million dollars on the books in 2016 (warning: slight hyperbole).
On the flip side, the San Francisco Giants are defending champions and winners of two of the past three World Championships. They’re joined by the up and coming Colorado Rockies, who have gone from experimental pitching rotation in 2012 to legitimate offense this season.
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This is what each team may try to do at the deadline to get there:
Buyers and Sellers: Los Angeles Dodgers
Legitimately, both paths make sense for LA and are likely to be utilized. Thanks to the monster emergence of Yasiel Puig, Andre Ethier is now completely irrelevant. Even with the often-injured, Carl Crawford, currently on the DL, if the Dodgers can move Ethier’s bloated contract, they will. After all, someone needs to give Robinson Cano leverage as he heads into Free Agency next season. Of course, the Dodgers can use some help to continue heading in the right direction (winners of eight of its last 10 games).
Currently, Los Angeles is 14th in runs scored in the NL, a tough obstacle to overcome in order to be a playoff team. Even as they heated up in June, they were still just 8th in the league in runs scored and fourth in their own division for the month. Los Angeles has just 62 home runs, 13th in the NL, which is a shame because they are fifth in OBP and have the second least strikeouts in the league.
Acquiring a MLB caliber third baseman and keeping Hanley Ramirez and Matt Kemp in the lineup can go a long ways towards making the Dodgers good enough on offense to become a threat. Of course, the rotation could use some help as well, namely in the way of depth. Ryu, Greinke and Kershaw are healthy and form a formidible 1-2-3 punch, but after Chris Capuano, there is a major dropoff with Ted Lilly and Chad Billingsley hurt most of the season and Aaron Harang long gone to Seattle. Josh Beckett is likely to miss the season with continued numbness in his hand, so the Dodgers could really use another starter, someone like Rocky Nolasco who they are rumored to be scouting heavily.
The bullpen has been an issue most of the year, blowing 16 of 39 saves until Don Mattingly finally ditched the overpaid Brandon League and replaced him with Kenley Jansen. Los Angeles is 14th overall in bullpen ERA, so its two biggest flaws are gaping.
Needs: 3B, Back-end starter, late-inning reliever
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Buyers: San Francisco Giants
Call it luck or the power of “Blur: Song 2” as a team theme song, but the Giants seem to have nine lives in the regular season. Three years ago, it took a Padres’ collapse in September just to let what would be the 2010 World Series champions into October. Last season, San Francisco was pretty underwhelming as well, but much like the New York Giants in football, let a team like that sneak in and it could be lights out. San Francisco has been built for October for a few years and cashed in twice.
This season is a bit different though, and it calls for some serious movement unlike in year’s past. A team built on pitching in a pitcher’s park still has a decent bullpen, currently it’s fourth in the NL in runs allowed. Jeremy Affeldt‘s return should help bolster the late innings as well.
Offensively, the Giants have never been a juggernaut and have won with much less in the past. Currently, ranked seventh in runs in the NL, the Giants are middle of the road, which is usually good enough for its rotation.
This year, the Giants’ rotation is not elite. This season, San Francisco is 14th in the NL in starter ERA (4.58) and second in home runs surrendered while tied for third in walks. Free passes and long balls can be correctable, but Ryan Vogelsong has been ineffective or hurt all season, Barry Zito has returned to earth and Tim Lincecum seems to no longer to even be a good starter let alone a repeat Cy Young winner.
The Giants only have four legitimate starters and two of them have struggled a lot this season. They should also be in on any viable front-end arm available at the break.
Needs: Elite starter, 4th OF
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Buyers: Arizona Diamondbacks
Sometimes it’s unclear if Kirk Gibson is insane or not. In the offseason, he traded Chris Young and Justin Upton, then proceeded to acquire Cody Ross and Jason Kubel. Gibson took Didi Gregorious and Martin Prado as his main package for Upton, which seemed like a legitimate ripoff of a return, and even with Upton’s near two month struggles, it still seems like an absurdly light package.
Still, even with potentially damaging Arizona’s core for years to come in exchange for perceived “grittiness”, Arizona finds itself 42-40 and somehow in first place. On the bright side, they score a lot.
The Diamondbacks are fifth in runs despite being 12th or worse in doubles, HR and SB. The ability to get on base and draw a walk (3rd in BB) has Arizona’s offense good enough to win the division.
So what’s not good enough? A combination of starters and Kirk Gibson. Arizona needs a strikeout arm to improve upon ranking: 10th in strikeouts, 12th in BAA and 11th in overall starter ERA. Ian Kennedy, Wade Miley and Patrick Corbin are locked at the front of the rotation (for better or worse with Kennedy) but like everyone else in the division, Arizona needs help. Unlike everyone else, their manager may be the other flaw.
The Diamondbacks have among the best statistical bullpens in the NL, currently with the fifth lowest ERA. They don’t walk too many hitters and they are in the upper half of the league in K, BAA and WHIP. So why are they 22 for 38 in save situations?
Gibson might be using his two worst relievers at the end of games. Heath Bell is 14/17 in save opportunities but sports a 4.60 ERA, .297 BAA, 1.53 WHIP and has surrendered seven home runs in 31.1 innings.
He is their closer.
J.J. Putz, the setup man, has not been much better. Putz has a 4.50 ERA, has blown five out of 10 saves, has a 1.71 WHIP and has yielded three long balls in his first 14 innings. This is the same bullpen with Brad Ziegler (2.08 ERA, .204 BAA, 1.00 WHIP), Josh Collmenter (2.58 ERA, .206 BAA, 1.03 WHIP) and Will Harris (2.00 ERA, .242 BAA and 1.28 WHIP). Time to make a change, Kirk.
Needs: Stable late-inning reliever, veteran starter
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Buyers: SanDiego Padres
In a year of oddities in the NL West, the Padres fit the bill. The team usually known for its massive ballpark, misleadingly good pitching and an anemic offense, has actually had a strong showing at the plate this season.
The Padres’ offense is as good or better than all the NL West teams outside of Colorado and have seen big years from: Carlos Quentin, Everth Cabrera, Judd Gyorko and Kyle Blanks.
When Gyorko and possibly Cabrera, return before the break, San Diego’s only offensive need may be in the outfield, where 30-year-old, Will Venable (.221/.265/.424) has not replaced the injured Cameron Maybin particularly well.
Maybin, is out a minimum of six weeks with a PCL injury in his right knee, and is not expected back until right before the deadline at the earliest.
In the rotation, the Padres need help. Edinson Volquez has been awful and Jason Marquis‘ 1.47 WHIP does not bode well for his second half. Andrew Cashner and Eric Stults have actually stepped up to the front of the rotation, but San Diego could use a massive improvement if it is going to rely on Volquez, Marquis and Robbie Erlin to round out the starting staff.
In the bullpen, San Diego is doing just fine, assisted by a now healthy Huston Street. Most teams can always use a reliever for a divisional race, but this is not where a low budget Padres team needs to concentrate given its current status and track record with homegrown relievers.
Needs: Legitimate starter, OF
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Buyers: Colorado Rockies
Colorado has had an admirable recovery from last season, where a four-man rotation and a 75 pitch limit left the Rockies 30-49 this time last year and eventual 98 game losers. Now, 41-43, the Rockies still have their flaws, but are relevant in a very winnable division. The offense is relentless.
Colorado is second in the NL in runs, guided by its home park’s ultimate hitter advantages and players like: Carlos Gonzalez (MVP candidate), Wilin Rosario, and Dexter Fowler, all of whom, well, they know how to hit.
The Rockies are tied for first in home runs, and in the upper half in both K and BB, while ranking second in AVG, OBP and first in SLG and OPS. They are even third in the NL in stolen bases, with a whopping 63/11 SB to CS ratio.
This team can score runs with the best of them and ranks in the upper half in nearly every reliever category. Colorado will always run into some skewed numbers because of where they play, but for the most part has been able to hold it down despite the third most innings pitched as a bullpen.
The ultimate concern is in the rotation, where Colorado has the 12th worst ERA of any starting staff, only ahead of the Padres, Giants and Brewers. Colorado starters have combined for just 466.2 innings, good for 13th in the NL.
The good news is they don’t give up many home runs, giving up the third least in the league while surrendering the second worst BAA (.277), third worst WHIP (1.40) and ranking dead last in strikeouts.
The easy solution here is on starters. Outside of Jhoulys Chacin, and Jorge De La Rosa, who make a formidable 1-2 punch, Colorado needs a lot of help. Tyler Chatwood is off to a good start at 4-1 with a 2.13 ERA in 50.2 innings, but he’s just 23-years-old.
Roy Oswalt is currently auditioning in the rotation and is just as washed up as he has been since 2011. Drew Pomeranz is a warm body as a fifth starter and the Rockies really have nobody internally to provide depth good enough to turn this rotation into playoff caliber.
Needs: Starters, anywhere from 3-5
