The St. Louis Cardinals were given a taste of their own medicine when the San Francisco Giants steamrolled them in last year’s NLCS. The same team who had come back from a 3-2 deficit to win the World Series in 2011, then went into Atlanta and won a do or die play-in game before avenging a 2-0 deficit to the Washington Nationals, coming back in the deciding fifth game from a six run deficit, had the rug pulled out from under them in seven games.
Suffice it to say, the Cardinals had a resilient run, cut short when the Giants came back from their own 3-1 deficit to beat the Cardinals and then sweep the Detroit Tigers en route to their second World Series in three years.
The best news for Cardinals’ fans is the Red Birds are right back to being front-runners again, owners of the second best record in the league and third in all of baseball. Of course, the downside is the best record belongs to the Pirates, who lead the NL Central by two games and the Reds are just 3.5 games behind the Cardinals.
It’s almost an after thought the Central could have three playoff teams this season and there’s an outside chance they could own the league’s top three records.
The Cardinals, Pirates and Reds may all be that good, but here’s what all five teams may be doing around the trade deadline:
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Buyers: St. Louis Cardinals
When you have won at least three games of the NLCS the past two years and are playing over .600 baseball in early July, it’s good to be you. The Cards don’t need to do anything drastic with a core in its prime and a seemingly never ending farm system.
The Cardinals lead the NL in runs scored and are on pace to break 800 runs while hitting less than 150 home runs. In other words, the Red Birds, who rank 11th in the NL in long balls, are capable of hitting one out, but can beat you in a lot of other ways.
St. Louis makes contact often, with the third least strikeouts in the league, and currently rank top three in: Hits, BA, OBP, SLG and OPS. Presently, the offense boasts six different players with OBPs of .348 or higher, including four different infielders.
Everyone on the team is capable of getting on base and driving in runs and that balance makes St. Louis dangerous on offense. Outside of upgrading on the slowly fading replacement for Rafael Furcal (out for the year), Pete Kozma, the Cardinals don’t have a weakness on offense.
St. Louis is savvy enough where they won’t overpay for a ninth effective hitter, so it’s unlikely you see any deals for any hitter come the end of July.
The pitching staff may see a tweak or two.
The Cards have the third best staff ERA and first among starters, but Shelby Miller is 22-years-old, Jaime Garcia is on the 60 day DL and Lance Lynn has never thrown more than 176 innings in the majors. Acquiring an innings-eating veteran is almost a necessity and one with the upside to start game four of a playoff game would be an extra benefit.
In the bullpen, the Cardinals have been good enough, but can use depth. Jason Motte is not likely to return this season and though Edward Mujica has been a solid closer, St. Louis is ninth as a bullpen in ERA, and 11th in strikeouts, implying they let too many hitters put the ball in play. Comparatively, the Cardinals are eighth in BAA and sixth in WHIP, so obtaining a late inning reliever could only help.
Needs: Back-end starter, late-inning reliever
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Buyers: Cincinnati Reds
The Reds are another team who have a World Champion core, but can use some tweaking. Last season, starting pitching ended up costing them in the playoffs when the Giants pitched their way out of a five game series, but the bullpen was elite. This season, the rotation is second best in the NL behind the Cardinals, but the bullpen ranks 11th in ERA and 3rd most in walks. Why is this significant?
Those same relievers are also third in stikeouts and fourth in BAA, meaning if they gave less free passes, the bullpen sporting a 3.80 ERA may very well naturally improve.
Easier said than done.
The Reds have run into major pitching injuries and currently have: Johnny Cueto, Jonathan Broxton and Sean Marshall all on the DL. Cueto’s lack of presence means Tony Cingrani is in the rotation, which is fine for the time being but also means Cingrani is no longer available to put out bullpen fires from time to time.
Aroldis Chapman has been great, but Sam Leclure and Alfredo Simon are definite downgrades from their injured counterparts, which can plague Cincy against elite lineups in October.
Acquiring Mat Latos has been all the Reds needed to make a solid rotation, great, but they are in need of at least one elite reliever if they want to break through a brutal division and league.
Offensively, a corner outfielder could be helpful if not unnecessary, and the Reds seem to prefer punting offense from their catchers in exchange for elite defense. Zack Cosart is too young to stunt by upgrading at shortstop and the Reds are third in runs and OBP, and fourth in HR and OPS anyway.
Needs: Setup Man, bullpen depth
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Buyers: Pittsburgh Pirates
Here we go again. For the third year in a row, the Pirates are off to a hot start. Not only did the Pirates fail to make the playoffs in the first two installments, but they failed to break their streak of sub .500 baseball both times in the process.
As of Monday, Pittsburgh had won nine in a row, was 51-30 and had the best record in a super competitive division and all of baseball. So how can they avoid becoming America’s laughing stock in the second half?
At first glance, Pittsburgh has been playing a little over their heads. The Pirates have only scored 45 runs more than surrendered, implying they should be around 46 wins, but that also comes with the territory when you play in low scoring games.
For as much as this could be a factor, we have seen teams like the Giants play this way all year, win enough to make the playoffs and be absolutely dominant when it matters.
So how did we get to this point? Pitching. The Pirates have the second lowest ERA behind the Cardinals with a rotation staff of 3.30. AJ Burnett had been dominant before hitting the DL, Jeff Locke is enjoying a breakout season and Francisco Liriano is an easy front-runner for comeback player of the year. Charlie Morton and Gerritt Cole have emerged to provide valuable depth in the wake of injuries to James Macdonald and Wandy Rodriguez, who both recently ran into setbacks.
Bullpen? Not an issue either, the Pirates are third in bullpen ERA at 2.87, second in K’s and tops in BAA and WHIP. They have the best bullpen this season by far, lead by Jason Grilli.
You can make the argument of acquiring a cheap starter and reliever if you don’t trust high upside rookies all year and you’re worried about Mark Melancon‘s work load, but the Pirates have shown no signs of slowing down with its pitching staff, even in the wake of injuries, plus Burnett is expected back soon.
Offensively, the Pirates are mostly set, but could use an upgrade at first base. Garrett Jones is nothing special and has been on the trading block for a couple of years. Though Travis Snider is banged up and struggling, Jose Tabata should be on his way back. Keep in mind this is a team super sensitive about its chemistry after back to back meltdowns, so though the Pirates may want an additional setup man, a better first baseman or an emergency starter, expecting near silence at the deadline is the higher probability.
Needs: 1B, reliever
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Sellers: Milwaukee Brewers
Even if the Brewers were better than mediocre on offense (not top four in anything except stolen bases where they also lead the league in caught stealing), they should be sellers. With a 5.18 team starting ERA good for dead last in the NL, it’s pretty obvious where Milwaukee will need to rebuild first. The Brewers also rank dead last in HR given up (10 more than any other team), BAA, WHIP and have the second least strikeouts of any rotation.
Yovani Gallardo would appear to be part of the solution going forward, so it’s unlikely he gets dealt anywhere, much like Ryan Braun on offense. Jean Segura and Jonathan Lucroy present value in thin positions, so building around those two and Braun would make for good future offensive plans. Carlos Gomez and Norichika Aoki are both cost-effective and solid, so the Brewers do have most of an offensive core going forward for what has been a mediocre campaign this season.
Rickie Weeks is probably an unmovable contract for anything worth his value, and Yuniesky Betancourt is one of the worst players, possibly in the history of the world, so he won’t net anything either. If the Brewers are to sell on offense, it will be Aramis Ramirez, who is a massive contract attached to a difference making bat for this season and next season, making him attractive to big market contenders.
The Yankees will back away from his price tag, but many others may not. Ramirez, for his part, was hurt for a long time this season but has heated up recently. By the end of the month, Ramirez could net full value for Milwaukee, who has no chance of resigning him at the end of next season. He is essentially the infield version of Alfonso Soriano.
The awful pitching staff does actually have some useful trade chips, starting with John Axford and Francisco Rodriguez and ending with Kyle Lohse, if possible. Lohse is locked into a three year deal, but he has pitched well this season. Corey Hart would have had value as well, but it looks like he will miss the entire season, making it entirely possible the Brewers complete the outfield with him on a team-friendly deal next season.
Needs: Corner IF, a pitching rotation, bullpen depth
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Sellers: Chicago Cubs
Nothing to see here in terms of debating whether the Cubs have a viable chance this year or even next year to compete. They don’t. What they have is a middle of the road rotation slowly improving but not ready to compete yet and definitely not deep enough, and a weak farm system.
They have a bad, erratic, undisciplined and thin bullpen with no long-term arms. The rotation is about 40% complete with Jeff Samardzija and Edwin Jackson, and all of that is OK.
Theo Epstein has a plan and that plan is going to take a bit longer.
In the meantime, Chicago can be taking advantage of a lot of desperate teams over the next month. Kevin Gregg, the heir to Carlos Marmol, has the trifecta as a reliever. Gregg has a sub 2 ERA, .200 BAA and 1.00 WHIP. Those numbers are sure to be valuable to the many contenders looking to improve the bullpen, and Gregg is not a long-term asset since he’s clearly out-pitching his capabilities. It’s a selling team’s dream to run into a situation like Kevin Gregg.
Chicago needs a third baseman and it will probably need an outfield since Alfonso Soriano and Nate Schierholtz both make excellent trade candidates, with the latter potentially being the best outfielder realistically on the market. David Dejesus, currently injured, is expected to return back in plenty of time and can offer value as well.
Of course, perhaps the biggest trade targets are in the rotation, with Scott Feldman having a fantastic season and Matt Garza trying to stay healthy enough to pitch his way out of Wrigley.
The Cubs should listen on everyone who isn’t a “Castro”, “Rizzo” or “Samardzija” at this point and look to meet the Miami Marlins in the 2017 NLCS with revenge 14 years in the making.
Needs: 3B, C, OF, prospects, SP, bullpen
