While Philadelphia Phillies fans wait for Ruben Amaro to find a veteran outfielder, Spring Training is quickly approaching. The Washington Nationals are the reigning National League East Champions winning 98 games in 2012. The Phillies will be looking for a return to form of the team that won five straight National League East titles and a World Series Championship in 2008. The 2013 edition of the Phillies may not yet be complete, but let’s take a position-by-position look at how they stack up against the Nationals with four weeks remaining before pitchers and catchers report to Clearwater Florida.
First Base – You can’t judge the matchup at first base solely on statistics from 2012. Ryan Howard came back from his injury and struggled early, averaging 1.4 strikeouts per game over the second half of the season. Howard has never been known for his plate discipline, but he was especially bad in 2012. Howard posted a slash line of .219/.295/.423, slugging 14 home runs and adding 56 RBI in 292 plate appearances. Adam LaRoche’s return to Washington is a great move for them, .271/.343/.510 33 home runs and 100 RBI as he provides a lot of power and above average defense.
Both players likely provide the same upside. On the field, there isn’t much difference. The front office might disagree with Howard being owed $25 million to LaRoche’s $13 million.
Third Base – As I’ve written before, there are no guarantees that Michael Young, 36, can play a full season at third base. Young batted .277/.313/.370 with eight home runs and 67 RBI. Ryan Zimmerman .282/.346/.478 will be in his prime at age 28 and holds the edge in power (25 home runs), run scoring, and just about every measurable category. Obviously the edge goes to Zimmerman and the Nationals.
Shortstop – Ian Desmond .292/.335/.511 had a huge season in 2012. I think the advantage here will be determined when we know where Jimmy Rollins .250/.316/.427 will be hitting. Rollins may be more valuable in the seven-hole with Ben Revere hitting leadoff. Rollins, with his career OBP of .328, is hitting leadoff, it will be a waste. Rollins hit 23 home runs and can still steal some bases at the backend of the order. If Desmond can repeat his year behind a loaded Nationals offense, he’ll definitely end the season with the advantage. For now, we’ll call it a push.
Left Field – There’s no question here -National League Rookie of the Year Bryce Harper .270/.340/.477 is clearly the better left fielder, a proven offensive threat and gives the Nationals a huge advantage. Harper is only going to be 21 and he came on hotter at the end of the season than most rookies…with the exception of Mike Trout. It’s also hard to gauge this matchup because of the small sample size with Darin Ruf. Ruf tore the cover off the ball at Triple-A Reading slugging 38 home runs with the 104 RBI and hit .317/.408/.620. That kind of production will be tough to duplicate at the major-league level. There are some questions about his plate discipline, though, which could hurt the Phillies in the long run.
Center Field – This seems to be the hardest projection for me. Denard Span .294/.333/.342 accounts for more runs and doubles while Revere steals more bases. The edge goes to the slightly older Span based on his career numbers. Ben Revere .283/.343/.395 will be a good center fielder in the years to come, but he still has some developing to do. If Revere can improve his plate discipline a little bit and figure out how to get a few more doubles, he could be hitting leadoff by June and contributing to a Phillies run.
Right Field – This one isn’t even close. Jayson Werth .300/.387/.396 only played in 81 games last season. Even at 80%, Werth is the better right fielder. Domonic Brown .235/.316/.396 has never played a full season and I’ve had conversations with several Phils fans who would be happy to see if he can perform over 162 games. As we’ve discussed several times, Amaro is still looking for a veteran corner outfielder to fill in some depth and maybe form a platoon in both corners. No matter which way it ends up, the Phils are at a disadvantage in the corners.
Catchers – Unfortunately for Phillies fans, this is the biggest mismatch on the board. Carlos Ruiz will sit out the first 25 games, suspended after testing positive for amphetamines and there’s no telling how Erik Kratz will perform over those games. For the last 137 games, the Phillies will be at an advantage behind the plate, even if Ruiz comes back to earth after posting extraordinary numbers in 2012. Ruiz batted .340/.394/.540 with 16 home runs and 68 RBI. Kurt Suzuki acquired in a trade from the Oakland Athletics last summer hit .235/.276/.328.
Overall, the Nationals appear to be the more talented team. I’ve written about the Phillies aging infield here before and I think that will come back to bite them in 2013. Injuries are always a part of baseball and age doesn’t help. If you look at the numbers close enough, there are reasons to think that the Phillies can compete for a Division title or a Wild Card throughout the season if the team can stay generally healthy.
