The New York Yankees were scrutinized for the moves they didn’t make as much as for the players they acquired. Spring Training received failing grades by most “experts” because needs weren’t addressed.
Now, 21 games into a young season, New York stands 12-9, a record unimpressive but also not hopeless. Many picked the Bronx Bombers to flame out, to finish near last, but the Yankees find themselves just 2.5 games out from a surging Red Sox team most picked to finish right beside them at the bottom.
Why 12-9? Why not 17-4 or 7-14? It may not be for the reasons you expect:
Perception: The Yankees will have some of the worst catching production in baseball.
Reality: Francisco Cervelli and even Chris Stewart have started the year better than expected. New York essentially “punted” the offensive expectations for catcher but the two players already in the system last year have performed admirably.
Cervelli and Stewart have combined for the following line: .288/.366/.859 with 4 HR, 9 RBI and 16 runs scored.
In the AL, those metrics are good for: first in runs, third in home runs, fourth in OBP and fourth in OPS. Not bad for a couple of backup catchers.
Perception: The Yankees’ outfield does not have enough power/Vernon Wells was an awful trade.
Reality: Whoops.
Vernon Wells has felt very comfortable early on and become the catalyst for a productive, albeit unconventional, outfield. Wells has 6HR, 10RBI and a .293/.361/.948 line.
In the AL, that’s good for most home runs, second best batting average and third best OPS from the left field position. Brett Gardner, Ichiro Suzuki and Brennan Boesch have also played roles in the outfield (Ben Francisco has been awful) and have chipped in another four home runs and 18 RBI, not to mention speed and defense unseen for many years in the Bronx.
If the Yankees can have 10 HR and 28 RBI from its outfielders before Curtis Granderson‘s bat returns in a couple of weeks, they’ll take it. Over a full season, it would mean almost 80 HR and over 150 RBI. Granderson may be able to push those numbers into above league average territories.
Perception: Eduardo Nunez‘s glove would prevent him from starting everyday at shortstop.
Reality: Actually, it’s been his bat, but the Yankees don’t have much of a choice right now but to start him. While Jayson Nix has started to get hot (four multi-hit games during a five game hitting streak), he has been relegated to third base for the past week with Kevin Youkilis missing time from a stiff back.
Down on the farm, David Adams is hitting well and spring training darling, Ronnier Mustelier, is getting healthy. Both players are capable third baseman with potential MLB caliber bats, so if Youkilis continues to miss time, this situation can get interesting.
In the meantime, Nunez has showed excellent range at shortstop and has just one error on the year. However, 9/52 at the plate (.173/.274) and just three RBI on the year is troubling at any position. Over 500 at bats, Nunez is a .271/.314 bat with 7HR and 51 RBI to go with just 61K and 40 SB in the majors, which is exactly what New York would sign up for in 2013 with Derek Jeter out most of the season.
The young shortstop also has never had an opportunity to play this long uninterrupted in the majors and Nunez will be turning 26 this June. Expectations at the plate are certainly higher than what he has been showing.
Perception: The Yankees’ rotation has too many question marks with age from their elite starters and inconsistency from the younger ones.
Reality: This is both accurate and inaccurate. CC Sabathia, Hiroki Kuroda and Andy Pettitte are 9-4 combined in the young season and have all shown signs of dominance. Pettitte has yet to have a start worse than seven innings and three runs.
Sabathia has gone seven innings or longer in four of his five starts and gave up four runs in 16 innings before his last start. Kuroda has a .215 batting average against and has given up four runs in his last 22.1 innings.
From that standpoint, the Yankees have three starters who can shut the opposing team down pretty consistently. On the other hand, age is a factor and has the potential to be a major one.
Sabathia, the youngest of the group, has rising velocity but has had fits of losing it, as evidenced by a smack-down from the Red Sox on Opening Day and a four run first inning against the Rays his most recent time out.
Pettitte, though dominant in all of his starts, had an appearance pushed back already this year because of back spasms.
Kuroda was hit in the hand on Opening Day and it seemed to linger into his next start. He has been lights out since.
For the younger arms, Phil Hughes followed two terrible starts to begin the year with two pretty solid ones, throwing seven innings and giving up just two earned runs in both games. It’s unclear which Hughes New York will get going forward, which makes him the very definition of inconsistent.
Ivan Nova has been the main disappointment. After an eye opening 2011 campaign, Nova was bad in 2012. Now in 2013, after a strong spring, Nova is bad again. The righty has made three starts and has not pitched past the fifth inning in any of them. He has given up 19 hits in 14.2 innings and sports a 1.84 WHIP to go with his 6.14 ERA. It would not be surprising if someone like Chien-Ming Wang, David Phelps or Adam Warren starting cracking into the rotation if Nova continues to struggle for another two or three starts. On the whole though, the Yankees’ rotation has been a strength.
Overall the Yankees have also been solid. Not great, not awful. And perhaps those are the kinds of inconclusive stats we should expect after 21 games.
The Yankees are fifth in runs, dominant against right-handed starters and invisible vs lefties. They are 6-4 at home and 6-5 away. New York is 11-1 when giving up four runs or less (shutout only by the unconscious. Matt Moore) and 1-8 when yielding five runs or more. As previously stated, 9-4 when the top three starters start, 3-5 when it is anybody else.
The Yankees have a very clear formula for winning and losing, but it has been created for reasons far separate from what many were predicting in the spring.
