Brett Gardner has always posted first rate results and been treated like a second rate player. When the New York Yankees called Gardner up, they batted him ninth and save for brief stints, he has remained there in the major league lineup. When Gardner has struggled at any level of the system, it’s been because of health and not results, yet the Yankees treat him as if they already know the long-term results of short-term reward.
Gardner missed most of last season and has two years left on his contract before he can join any club at whatever the market dictates. And yet, even after four years of service time, it’s still unclear what a full season of Brett Gardner in his prime can become. Gardner turns 30 in August and is 9/16 this spring with a triple, three RBI and two SBs. While spring training is never a barometer for much, it helps to indicate the health of a player, the biggest concern in Gardner’s case. With Ichiro Suzuki just as big of an unknown in the twilight of his career (and a full season in a new stadium) and Derek Jeter battling back from a broken ankle, it appears the top of the lineup is once again up for grabs.
No matter how you slice it, Jeter is going to bat second once he is playing. Another given is that whoever does not bat leadoff in front of him, is likely going to bat eighth or ninth because Girardi likes having speed at the bottom of the lineup to set the table again for the top. We already know despite stats pointing to the contrary, Gardner will be the starting left fielder on Opening Day. He is proven to be more effective than Curtis Granderson in center field (and left field for that matter) but will be playing in the corner because Granderson won’t have time to learn an easier position due to his broken arm.
What we know is in the past two healthy seasons, and in just his second and third year in the majors, Gardner put up an average split of: .268/364 and averaged 48 stolen bases and being caught just 11 times. Even with those stats, Gardner never saw more than 511 at bats in either season, despite being superior to players such as Carl Crawford and Ichiro in the same time span.
For comparison’s sake, even with a rebirth at Yankee Stadium, Ichiro managed a .322 average but just a .340 OBP in 2012. In 663 at bats for Seattle and New York, Ichiro stole 29 bases and was caught seven times. He did only strike out 61 times compared to Gardner, who averaged 97 K’s in his two near-complete seasons. Still, for putting the ball in play 36 extra times, Ichiro reached base less and stole less, getting caught at a higher rate. Another bonus factor is Ichiro is very likely to show decent power this year compared to Gardner, something which may come in handy in the suddenly power-less bottom of the Yankees’ lineup.
For both players, facing lefties hasn’t been an issue. Ichiro has slightly better stats against lefties than righties in his career, owning a .330/.368 line while Gardner is .256/.362, a full 10 on base percentage points better against lefties than righties, and yet historically he has been treated as a platoon player. Ichiro, for the record, was a .284/.291 hitter against lefties last season, not an encouraging on base percentage for someone hitting leadoff.
Trusting Gardner at this stage of the game would only be beneficial for the Yankees. Ichiro’s veteran leadership and professional approach as a first ballot Hall of Famer with some potentially untapped pop in a stadium like the Bronx, would be highly beneficial in the bottom of the lineup. Batting Ichiro eighth would likely see him get on base a lot with a weak hitting catcher (Francisco Cervelli or Chris Stewart) behind him batting ninth. Gardner hitting leadoff would set the table for Jeter, prone to hitting a lot of ground balls and going the other way, two traits implying the hit and run and stolen base attempt, something Gardner would do well at.
With this concept, the lineup would look like this:
1. Brett Gardner LF
2. Derek Jeter SS
3. Robinson Cano 2B
4. Mark Teixeira 1B
5. Travis Hafner: DH
6. Kevin Youkilis 3B
7. Curtis Granderson CF
8. Ichiro RF
9. Francisco Cervelli/ Chris Stewart
Of course, Granderson is hurt right now which would likely bump Ichiro up a spot and add someone like Melky Mesa in the nine spot behind the catcher. Teixiera and Youkilis may flip flop, or Youkilis might hit fourth, Teixeira fifth and Hafner sixth. Against lefties, the DH will likely be someone like Eduardo Nunez or a Yankee regular, but for the most part it’s likely either Gardner or Ichiro is leading off and the other one is going to be in the bottom third of the lineup.
For a team lacking in younger players (Gardner at 29 will likely be the youngest everyday hitter), wouldn’t it make sense to see what Gardner is capable of the next two seasons? For a team lacking in power wouldn’t showcasing speed help? Or utilizing defense as best as possible? If he fails or slumps for awhile, there’s no harm in switching him with a veteran like Ichiro, but in reverse it could create a firestorm.
Gardner offers a three element combination nobody else on the team possesses. He has speed, defense and is in his prime.
The Yankees would be wise to see just how high that ceiling will reach.
