Mobileye Global (NASDAQ:MBLY) said its core advanced driver-assistance systems business has strengthened in 2026, while the company works to expand its higher-content hands-free driving offerings and develop a more vertically integrated robotaxi strategy.
Speaking with Evercore ISI Head of Global Auto and Mobility Chris McNally, Chief Communications Officer Dan Galves acknowledged that several anticipated SuperVision partnerships “didn’t really materialize” in their first round. Still, he said the company sees reasons for optimism in its core ADAS business, emerging-market growth and planned launches with automakers including Porsche.
Core ADAS Volume Outlook Improves
That customer growth compares with an estimated 5% decline in global production among those top 10 OEM customers, according to Galves. He said the company’s growth relative to customer production reflects strong performance despite a sluggish broader auto-production environment.
China-based automakers have increased exports as their domestic market remains weak, Galves said. Mobileye has stronger share on export vehicles, particularly with Chery and Geely, than it does on vehicles sold in China. He said exports are reaching markets including Russia, Brazil, Malaysia and Australia, rather than being concentrated in Western Europe.
According to Galves, low ADAS penetration in those markets is prompting legacy automakers to standardize more ADAS content. He cited S&P data showing about 1 million to 1.5 million units of emerging-market ADAS adoption growth this year and said Mobileye expects that figure could be revised higher.
Looking further ahead, Galves identified India as a significant potential growth market, citing Mobileye’s position with Mahindra and Tata as well as regulations expected in 2027. However, he said growth beyond roughly 40 million units will not be easy because of production declines among some major customers and already-high ADAS penetration in North America and Western Europe.
Hands-Free Systems Offer Higher Content Opportunity
Mobileye sees highway hands-free Level 2+ systems as the largest near-term growth opportunity in ADAS. Galves distinguished those products from point-to-point systems, which can drive a vehicle to a destination across varied road types and conditions.
While point-to-point systems such as Tesla’s Full Self-Driving receive considerable attention, Galves said highway hands-free systems are expected to account for more volume over the next several years. He cited an estimated 18% compound annual growth rate for the segment over the next two to three years.
The company has secured two major new “Surround ADAS” programs with Volkswagen and a large U.S. OEM, Galves said, while BMW elected to continue working with Qualcomm. Surround ADAS includes multiple cameras, radars, an EyeQ6 High processor and Mobileye-provided software for capabilities including parking and driver monitoring.
Galves said the systems can lower costs for automakers. In one program, he said Mobileye expects to reduce the OEM’s current cost to approximately $400 from about $1,200. The company expects Surround ADAS to generate two to three times the average selling price of a base system while maintaining the same gross-margin profile.
Mobileye also discussed its Cloud-Enhanced ADAS offering, which Stellantis selected to add REM road intelligence to an existing EyeQ6 Lite program. Galves said the upgrade can increase average selling price to about $90 from $50, while gross profit per unit is similar to the more comprehensive Surround ADAS system.
Porsche Launch Seen as SuperVision Proof Point
Galves said Mobileye’s SuperVision system with Porsche is scheduled to launch next year and could become an important proof point for its point-to-point capabilities. He said the Porsche program continues to indicate annual volume of roughly 300,000 to 350,000 units after several years, rather than in the initial 2027 launch year.
He said the launch could provide evidence that Mobileye can execute a next-generation system that competes with Tesla’s FSD. The company has also received calls concerning possible fallback programs, Galves said, as automakers pursue multi-supplier approaches and seek to retain their own intellectual property in point-to-point autonomy programs.
For its Chauffeur program with Audi, Galves said development is making good progress and remains on track for a planned second-quarter 2028 launch, though “a lot of work” remains.
Robotaxi Efforts Expand Beyond OEM Partnerships
Mobileye said its existing robotaxi partnerships are advancing. Closed-user-group testing with Volkswagen ID. Buzz vehicles has begun in Orlando and has been underway for months in Hamburg, both with safety drivers. Los Angeles testing is occurring in Santa Monica and West Hollywood, while Oslo and Berlin are also target cities.
Galves said Mobileye’s partner HOLON, owned by BENTELER Group, has been selected as the production autonomous-vehicle partner for Deutsche Bahn’s KIRA initiative. The program is intended to integrate autonomous vehicles into public transportation in multiple German regions.
Mobileye is also pursuing its own vertically integrated robotaxi platform. Galves said the company intends to have vehicles delivered from automakers without self-driving equipment to an upfit facility, after which Mobileye would own the completed vehicle. That structure would allow the company to sell or lease vehicles to operators, deploy them in its own service, or use them in third-party services.
The company does not intend to necessarily operate a fully vertically integrated service in direct competition with Waymo, Galves said. Instead, it aims to establish a complete service and demonstrate driverless operation to improve its negotiating position with potential fleet-scale partners.
Galves said Mobileye expects to have AV-ready vehicles by the end of the year or early 2027 and believes an OEM could produce a purpose-designed variation of an existing vehicle platform in the thousands annually. He said the company believes it can bring the bill of materials cost for its self-driving system below $10,000, excluding the cost of the vehicle itself.
About Mobileye Global (NASDAQ:MBLY)
Mobileye Global Inc is a technology company focused on advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS) and autonomous driving. Its technologies are designed to help improve road safety and support automated driving through computer vision, artificial intelligence, sensor fusion and mapping.
The company develops and supplies products for automakers and mobility providers, including EyeQ system-on-chips, camera-based driver-assistance features, SuperVision hands-free driving technology, and autonomous driving platforms.
