Geo Group (NYSE:GEO) Updates FY 2026 Earnings Guidance

Geo Group (NYSE:GEO) updated its FY 2026 earnings guidance on Thursday. The company provided earnings per share (EPS) guidance of 1.270-1.320 for the period, compared to the consensus EPS estimate of 1.220. The company issued revenue guidance of $3.0 billion-$3.1 billion, compared to the consensus revenue estimate of $3.0 billion. Geo Group also updated its Q3 2026 guidance to 0.350-0.370 EPS.

Analyst Upgrades and Downgrades

A number of analysts recently commented on the company. JonesTrading raised their price target on Geo Group from $33.00 to $40.00 and gave the stock a “buy” rating in a research note on Thursday. Wall Street Zen lowered shares of Geo Group from a “buy” rating to a “hold” rating in a report on Saturday, July 25th. Weiss Ratings raised shares of Geo Group from a “hold (c)” rating to a “hold (c+)” rating in a research report on Tuesday, June 9th. Northland Securities lifted their target price on shares of Geo Group from $30.00 to $40.00 and gave the company an “outperform” rating in a research note on Friday, June 26th. Finally, Zacks Research upgraded shares of Geo Group from a “hold” rating to a “strong-buy” rating in a research report on Monday, July 20th. One analyst has rated the stock with a Strong Buy rating, two have issued a Buy rating and one has given a Hold rating to the company. According to MarketBeat, the stock has a consensus rating of “Buy” and an average target price of $40.00.

Geo Group Trading Up 2.0%

GEO opened at $30.73 on Friday. The stock has a market cap of $4.11 billion, a PE ratio of 14.50, a PEG ratio of 1.66 and a beta of 0.79. The company has a quick ratio of 1.75, a current ratio of 1.65 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.00. The business has a 50 day moving average of $29.27 and a 200-day moving average of $21.72. Geo Group has a 52 week low of $12.51 and a 52 week high of $32.25.

Geo Group (NYSE:GEO) last issued its quarterly earnings results on Thursday, August 6th. The real estate investment trust reported $0.37 earnings per share for the quarter, topping the consensus estimate of $0.29 by $0.08. The company had revenue of $732.07 million for the quarter, compared to analysts’ expectations of $721.43 million. Geo Group had a return on equity of 10.42% and a net margin of 10.31%.The firm’s revenue for the quarter was up 15.1% on a year-over-year basis. During the same period in the prior year, the firm earned $0.22 earnings per share. Equities research analysts predict that Geo Group will post 1.3 earnings per share for the current fiscal year.

Key Stories Impacting Geo Group

Here are the key news stories impacting Geo Group this week:

• Positive Sentiment: Second-quarter results beat expectations: GEO reported adjusted earnings of $0.37 per share, above the $0.28–$0.29 consensus range, while revenue rose 15.1% year over year to approximately $732.1 million, exceeding estimates. GEO Group Q2 Earnings and Revenues Beat Estimates
• Positive Sentiment: 2026 outlook was raised above analyst expectations: GEO now expects full-year EPS of $1.27–$1.32, compared with consensus of $1.22, and revenue of $3.0 billion–$3.1 billion. Management also projects third-quarter EPS of $0.35–$0.37, above the $0.30 consensus estimate. The GEO Group Reports Second Quarter Results and Updates Full Year 2026 Guidance
• Positive Sentiment: ICE expansion and analyst support are strengthening the growth narrative: GEO is targeting additional ICE facility activations by the end of 2026 and outlined expected 2026 net income of $168 million–$175 million. JonesTrading raised its price target from $33 to $40 and maintained a Buy rating, implying further upside from the referenced price. GEO Outlines 2026 Net Income Guidance
• Neutral Sentiment: Momentum screens highlight continued price strength: Recent performance has substantially outpaced the stock’s longer-term moving average, although such technical signals do not necessarily indicate that the gains will continue. GEO Group Price Strength Analysis
• Negative Sentiment: Some quarterly guidance was weaker: Fourth-quarter EPS guidance of $0.28–$0.31 was below the $0.33 consensus estimate, creating a modest counterpoint to the otherwise favorable outlook. GEO is also facing questions from lawmakers regarding alleged violations at its Moshannon Valley facility, which could present reputational or regulatory risk. Questions Regarding Moshannon Valley Processing Center

Institutional Inflows and Outflows

Large investors have recently bought and sold shares of the business. MIRAE ASSET GLOBAL ETFS HOLDINGS Ltd. boosted its stake in Geo Group by 4.6% during the first quarter. MIRAE ASSET GLOBAL ETFS HOLDINGS Ltd. now owns 75,766 shares of the real estate investment trust’s stock worth $2,213,000 after acquiring an additional 3,309 shares in the last quarter. NewEdge Advisors LLC increased its stake in shares of Geo Group by 81.9% during the first quarter. NewEdge Advisors LLC now owns 1,864 shares of the real estate investment trust’s stock valued at $54,000 after purchasing an additional 839 shares in the last quarter. United Services Automobile Association purchased a new position in shares of Geo Group during the first quarter valued at approximately $260,000. UBS AM A Distinct Business Unit of UBS Asset Management Americas LLC boosted its position in shares of Geo Group by 168.0% in the 1st quarter. UBS AM A Distinct Business Unit of UBS Asset Management Americas LLC now owns 284,975 shares of the real estate investment trust’s stock worth $8,324,000 after purchasing an additional 178,622 shares in the last quarter. Finally, Invesco Ltd. boosted its position in shares of Geo Group by 4.2% in the 2nd quarter. Invesco Ltd. now owns 1,308,817 shares of the real estate investment trust’s stock worth $31,346,000 after purchasing an additional 52,623 shares in the last quarter. 76.10% of the stock is owned by hedge funds and other institutional investors.

About Geo Group

The GEO Group (NYSE:GEO) is a leading provider of correctional, detention and community reentry services to government agencies around the world. As a real estate investment trust, the company specializes in the design, financing, development and operation of secure facilities for adult and juvenile offenders, immigration detainees and individuals requiring mental health treatment or substance abuse programming. GEO’s integrated service model also encompasses electronic monitoring, rehabilitative programming and post-release supervision aimed at reducing recidivism and enhancing public safety.

GEO’s portfolio spans a range of facility types, including medium- and maximum-security correctional institutions, residential reentry centers, mental health treatment units and immigration detention centers.