MP Materials (NYSE:MP) is executing a vertically integrated rare earth strategy “at scale today,” Chief Financial Officer Ryan Corbett said during a fireside chat, outlining progress from mining and refining at Mountain Pass to downstream metal, alloy and magnet production. Corbett also discussed the company’s U.S. government partnership, market developments outside China, demand drivers such as automotive, consumer electronics, robotics and defense, and near-term operational milestones.
Vertical integration and current production footprint
Corbett emphasized that MP’s vertical integration is not simply a long-term ambition. The company owns and operates Mountain Pass, which he described as one of the world’s richest rare earth ore bodies, and said MP is currently the second-largest producer of rare earth content globally. He added that MP is also “one of the largest refiners of rare earths.”
Department of Defense partnership: price floor and “10X” expansion
Corbett said the partnership agreement announced in July of last year with the U.S. Department of Defense included a price floor tied to NdPr pricing for MP’s upstream and midstream operations, while maintaining upside exposure to market prices. He argued the agreement has already influenced how the market operates and how pricing is developing.
He also described the downstream growth plan enabled by the partnership. MP’s Independence facility is ramping with an initial capacity of 1,000 tons of magnet production, planned to expand to 3,000 tons. The company is also building a new facility called “10X,” which Corbett said represents an incremental 7,000 tons of capacity.
According to Corbett, the 10X facility includes an offtake agreement with the Department of Defense that guarantees magnet product sales and a minimum earnings profile. He noted that when MP announced the deal, it provided a view of a “roughly $650 million targeted EBITDA minimum” from various elements of the agreement, adding that “north of $400 million” of that figure was associated with the Materials segment, which still retains NdPr price upside. Corbett said MP expects “very significant upside” beyond minimum magnet earnings as it commercially syndicates 10X capacity.
Ex-China market shifts and feedstock constraints
Asked about government support across the industry, Corbett said follow-on developments—he pointed to Lynas’ deal with the Japanese government—have been “meaningfully positive” for MP’s competitive position, especially in magnets. He said the market reaction was rapid and argued that, outside China, there are effectively two scaled producers of NdPr oxide.
Corbett said Lynas has guaranteed 5,000 tons of output to Japan’s magnet industry and also has a right of first refusal for more volumes, resulting in much of Lynas’ potential supply being “spoken for.” Against that backdrop, he questioned whether the feedstock is sufficient for the “nearly 50,000 tons of magnet capacity” announced in the Western world in the last 18 to 24 months, noting that 50,000 tons of magnets would require about 25,000 tons of NdPr. MP, he said, is targeting 6,000 tons of NdPr oxide from its initial refining capacity.
On pricing, Corbett declined to offer a specific forecast but said the shift in ex-China fundamentals over the past 18 months makes it “really hard not to be extremely bullish” on NdPr prices, particularly outside China. He added that customer discussions are increasingly moving away from solely referencing Asian benchmarks and that MP’s position on the cost curve allows it to benefit from higher prices, especially as potential new supply may come online at higher costs.
Demand outlook: autos, Apple, robotics, data centers and defense
Corbett said rare earth magnet demand remains attractive even without a “significant new growth vector,” citing continued electrification across internal combustion vehicle platforms and increasing magnet content per vehicle. He also called consumer electronics magnet demand underappreciated, pointing to MP’s announced partnership with Apple.
He described additional emerging demand areas tied to “the physical layer of AI,” including robotics, where actuators can drive significant magnet usage. He also pointed to data center needs such as cooling, noting that efficient HVAC systems use magnets, and said storage demand includes hard disk drives, which rely on magnetic components. In defense, Corbett said recent conflicts underscore the growing role of drones and robotics, which use NdFeB magnets, and characterized the bottleneck as access to NdPr rather than heavy rare earths in many of these applications.
Corbett said customers have moved from a tactical focus—ensuring assembly lines do not shut down following China’s export restrictions—to a longer-term strategic approach over three, five, and 10 years. He cited an example of an automotive manufacturer curtailing production due to a magnet used in a speaker, underscoring how pervasive magnet use can be.
He also said MP’s initial Independence capacity is covered by General Motors as a “foundational customer,” while Apple is “anchoring the expansion” of that plant. With the Department of Defense backstopping the entire 10X offtake, Corbett said, “Effectively from my perspective, I’m sold out,” adding that the company is “in no rush to announce a bunch of offtakes.”
Operational milestones: Mountain Pass debottlenecking, Independence revenue, 10X site work
On Mountain Pass, Corbett said management has confidence in reaching targeted throughput, referencing guidance from Chief Operating Officer Michael last quarter that called for at least 20% sequential growth into the current quarter. He said a planned April shutdown for preventative maintenance and debottlenecking work will drive modest sequential growth from Q1 to Q2 followed by “pretty meaningful growth coming out of that downtime,” with the company targeting a year-end run rate of 6,000 tons.
Corbett said MP is addressing mechanical material movement and reliability issues to reach that level. He also discussed the ore body’s longevity, referencing the mine life embedded in the company’s S-K 1300 report while stating MP expects Mountain Pass to last “many decades beyond” the current plan. He noted the company’s cutoff grade is 2.5% and said its waste stockpile is “probably the U.S.’ second best rare earth ore body,” adding that MP may further define the asset as business needs evolve.
For downstream magnets, Corbett said the Independence facility is beginning the production qualification process. He said MP expects magnet product revenue in the back half of this year from a foundational customer. Regarding the Apple partnership, he said production is expected to begin in the middle of 2027. For 10X, Corbett said MP is targeting mid-to-end 2028 commissioning, has selected a site, is preparing to begin earthmoving, and has made progress on long-lead equipment orders and design.
Corbett also pointed to support from the State of Texas, citing an approximately $200 million incentive package, including about $66 million in direct grants tied to execution milestones.
Asked about potential challenges, Corbett framed the work as primarily an execution and debottlenecking effort rather than a technical hurdle, noting MP’s prior ramp from “zero refining” until 2024 to becoming a large refiner, and its growth since 2017 from a small team to a major producer.
In closing remarks, Corbett said MP’s strategy has been staged and deliberate, and that he believes the company’s scale and asset base are difficult to replicate. He also argued that the company has addressed what he called the “mercantilist threat from China” through its Department of Defense partnership, while continuing to generate earnings in its Materials segment alongside what he described as significant growth and reinvestment opportunities.
About MP Materials (NYSE:MP)
MP Materials Corporation operates as a vertically integrated producer of rare earth materials in North America. The company owns and manages the Mountain Pass Rare Earth Mine and Processing Facility in California, the only commercially viable rare earth mining and processing site in the United States. MP Materials extracts, separates and refines critical rare earth elements—such as neodymium, praseodymium, and cerium—which are essential inputs for permanent magnets used in electric vehicles, wind turbines, and various defense applications.
The Mountain Pass mine first began commercial rare earth production in the 1950s and was later operated by Molycorp until its bankruptcy in 2015.
