Geo Group (NYSE:GEO) Reaches New 52-Week Low – Should You Sell?

Geo Group Inc (The) (NYSE:GEO) reached a new 52-week low on Thursday . The stock traded as low as $13.00 and last traded at $13.4030, with a volume of 1696711 shares. The stock had previously closed at $15.83.

Key Headlines Impacting Geo Group

Here are the key news stories impacting Geo Group this week:

• Positive Sentiment: Q4 revenue beat and strong top‑line growth — GEO reported total Q4 revenues of $707.7M, up ~16.5% year‑over‑year, signaling healthy contract activity and revenue momentum. View Press Release
• Positive Sentiment: Founder returns as CEO — GEO announced CEO J. David Donahue will retire and Founder/Executive Chairman Dr. George Zoley will resume the CEO role effective March 1, 2026, a move some investors may view as stabilizing because of Zoley’s long-standing operational experience. Corporate Reorganization
• Neutral Sentiment: Q4 EPS in line with expectations — GEO reported $0.25 EPS, matching consensus and improving from $0.13 a year ago; that removes an outright earnings surprise as a catalyst. Earnings Coverage
• Neutral Sentiment: Full release and investor materials posted — management provided a press release and slide deck with the quarter and 2026 outlook for review. Slide Deck
• Negative Sentiment: 2026 guidance below Street expectations — GEO set FY 2026 EPS guidance of $0.99–$1.07 vs. consensus ~$1.27, a meaningful shortfall that likely pressured the stock. Company Results & Guidance
• Negative Sentiment: Q1 guidance also below expectations — management guided Q1 2026 EPS of $0.17–$0.19 (consensus ~$0.25) and revenue guidance slightly under Street estimates, reinforcing concerns about near‑term earnings growth. Guidance Summary
• Negative Sentiment: Legal and ESG pressure persists — a denied rehearing on a legal injunction and reports of rejected shareholder proposals on human‑rights reviews add reputational and litigation risk that could weigh on valuation. No Rehearing Article ESG Coverage

Analyst Upgrades and Downgrades

Several research firms recently weighed in on GEO. Weiss Ratings reaffirmed a “hold (c)” rating on shares of Geo Group in a research note on Monday, December 29th. Wall Street Zen upgraded shares of Geo Group from a “hold” rating to a “buy” rating in a research note on Saturday, December 13th. Jones Trading lowered their price objective on shares of Geo Group from $50.00 to $37.00 and set a “buy” rating for the company in a research report on Friday, November 7th. Finally, Zacks Research raised shares of Geo Group from a “strong sell” rating to a “hold” rating in a research note on Friday, January 9th. Three equities research analysts have rated the stock with a Buy rating and two have issued a Hold rating to the stock. Based on data from MarketBeat.com, the company presently has a consensus rating of “Moderate Buy” and an average price target of $35.00.

Geo Group Trading Down 13.6%

The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.02, a current ratio of 1.62 and a quick ratio of 1.62. The company has a market cap of $1.90 billion, a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.08 and a beta of 0.73. The business’s fifty day moving average price is $16.64 and its 200 day moving average price is $18.38.

Geo Group (NYSE:GEO) last posted its quarterly earnings data on Thursday, February 12th. The real estate investment trust reported $0.25 earnings per share for the quarter, hitting the consensus estimate of $0.25. Geo Group had a net margin of 9.41% and a return on equity of 7.42%. During the same quarter in the previous year, the firm earned $0.13 earnings per share. The business’s quarterly revenue was up 16.5% on a year-over-year basis. Geo Group has set its Q1 2026 guidance at 0.170-0.190 EPS and its FY 2026 guidance at 0.990-1.070 EPS. Research analysts anticipate that Geo Group Inc will post 0.83 earnings per share for the current fiscal year.

Institutional Trading of Geo Group

Several institutional investors and hedge funds have recently made changes to their positions in the company. MIRAE ASSET GLOBAL ETFS HOLDINGS Ltd. lifted its holdings in Geo Group by 4.6% during the first quarter. MIRAE ASSET GLOBAL ETFS HOLDINGS Ltd. now owns 75,766 shares of the real estate investment trust’s stock worth $2,213,000 after acquiring an additional 3,309 shares during the period. NewEdge Advisors LLC lifted its stake in shares of Geo Group by 81.9% during the 1st quarter. NewEdge Advisors LLC now owns 1,864 shares of the real estate investment trust’s stock valued at $54,000 after buying an additional 839 shares in the last quarter. United Services Automobile Association purchased a new stake in Geo Group during the 1st quarter worth about $260,000. UBS AM A Distinct Business Unit of UBS Asset Management Americas LLC boosted its position in shares of Geo Group by 168.0% in the first quarter. UBS AM A Distinct Business Unit of UBS Asset Management Americas LLC now owns 284,975 shares of the real estate investment trust’s stock valued at $8,324,000 after acquiring an additional 178,622 shares during the period. Finally, Yousif Capital Management LLC grew its position in shares of Geo Group by 2.5% during the 2nd quarter. Yousif Capital Management LLC now owns 51,917 shares of the real estate investment trust’s stock valued at $1,243,000 after purchasing an additional 1,256 shares in the last quarter. Hedge funds and other institutional investors own 76.10% of the company’s stock.

Geo Group Company Profile

The GEO Group (NYSE:GEO) is a leading provider of correctional, detention and community reentry services to government agencies around the world. As a real estate investment trust, the company specializes in the design, financing, development and operation of secure facilities for adult and juvenile offenders, immigration detainees and individuals requiring mental health treatment or substance abuse programming. GEO’s integrated service model also encompasses electronic monitoring, rehabilitative programming and post-release supervision aimed at reducing recidivism and enhancing public safety.

GEO’s portfolio spans a range of facility types, including medium- and maximum-security correctional institutions, residential reentry centers, mental health treatment units and immigration detention centers.