Certara (NASDAQ:CERT) Releases Earnings Results, Misses Expectations By $0.02 EPS

Certara (NASDAQ:CERT) posted its quarterly earnings data on Thursday. The company reported $0.09 earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter, missing analysts’ consensus estimates of $0.11 by ($0.02), FiscalAI reports. The business had revenue of $103.65 million for the quarter, compared to analysts’ expectations of $103.23 million. Certara had a net margin of 2.62% and a return on equity of 5.18%. Certara’s revenue was up 3.2% compared to the same quarter last year. During the same quarter in the previous year, the firm earned $0.15 EPS. Certara updated its FY 2026 guidance to 0.440-0.480 EPS.

Here are the key takeaways from Certara’s conference call:

• New CEO and strategic plan: Jon Resnick (onboard Jan 1) laid out three priorities — focused portfolio, customer-centric go-to-market, and operational discipline — and says Certara can reach double-digit growth over time while already identifying roughly $10M of 2026 cost avoidance.
• Conservative 2026 guidance: Management guides to only flat to +4% revenue growth for 2026, adjusted EBITDA margin of 30%–32%, and adjusted EPS of $0.44–$0.48, with Q1 expected at the low end of the range.
• Mixed 2025 results but near-term execution risks: full-year revenue was $418.8M (+9%), software revenue was $183.3M (+18% reported; organic +7%), yet Q4 software bookings fell 6% and management cited conversion and Tier 1/2 execution weakness.
• Services and MIDD momentum: technology-driven services bookings rose 17% in Q4 and MIDD services showed double-digit bookings growth, with December customer commitments cited as a positive discretionary-spend indicator.
• Regulatory writing under strategic review and capital allocation: the regulatory writing & operations business is in the final stages of a strategic review (outcome not yet disclosed) while the company plans to continue using share repurchases as a capital-allocation tool.

Certara Stock Up 3.2%

Shares of NASDAQ CERT traded up $0.21 during midday trading on Thursday, reaching $6.80. 4,562,931 shares of the company’s stock traded hands, compared to its average volume of 2,594,978. The company has a market cap of $1.08 billion, a price-to-earnings ratio of 97.14 and a beta of 1.47. The stock’s 50 day simple moving average is $8.44 and its 200-day simple moving average is $9.94. The company has a quick ratio of 2.09, a current ratio of 2.09 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.27. Certara has a one year low of $6.04 and a one year high of $15.38.

Institutional Trading of Certara

Several hedge funds and other institutional investors have recently bought and sold shares of the stock. Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Co. raised its position in shares of Certara by 2,733.3% in the 4th quarter. Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Co. now owns 2,975 shares of the company’s stock worth $26,000 after acquiring an additional 2,870 shares in the last quarter. Osaic Holdings Inc. raised its holdings in Certara by 50.7% in the second quarter. Osaic Holdings Inc. now owns 3,491 shares of the company’s stock worth $41,000 after purchasing an additional 1,175 shares in the last quarter. Tower Research Capital LLC TRC lifted its position in shares of Certara by 499.5% during the second quarter. Tower Research Capital LLC TRC now owns 5,917 shares of the company’s stock valued at $69,000 after buying an additional 4,930 shares during the last quarter. Canada Pension Plan Investment Board purchased a new position in shares of Certara in the 2nd quarter worth approximately $83,000. Finally, Engineers Gate Manager LP bought a new position in shares of Certara during the 4th quarter worth approximately $92,000. Institutional investors own 73.96% of the company’s stock.

Wall Street Analyst Weigh In

A number of analysts have recently issued reports on CERT shares. Weiss Ratings reissued a “sell (d+)” rating on shares of Certara in a research note on Monday, December 29th. BMO Capital Markets initiated coverage on shares of Certara in a research report on Thursday, November 13th. They issued a “market perform” rating and a $9.00 price objective for the company. Stephens dropped their target price on shares of Certara from $15.00 to $12.00 and set an “overweight” rating on the stock in a research note on Friday, December 12th. Morgan Stanley reduced their target price on shares of Certara from $16.00 to $12.00 and set an “equal weight” rating on the stock in a research report on Thursday, December 18th. Finally, Leerink Partners reiterated an “outperform” rating and issued a $10.00 price target on shares of Certara in a report on Thursday. One equities research analyst has rated the stock with a Strong Buy rating, seven have assigned a Buy rating, six have assigned a Hold rating and one has given a Sell rating to the company. According to MarketBeat.com, Certara has an average rating of “Moderate Buy” and an average price target of $12.55.

Certara News Roundup

Here are the key news stories impacting Certara this week:

• Positive Sentiment: FY‑2025 revenue and margin strength — Certara reported FY‑2025 revenue of $418.8M (+9%) and adjusted EBITDA of $134.5M (+10%), showing solid full‑year top‑line growth and expanded adjusted EBITDA. Read More.
• Positive Sentiment: Product / bookings momentum — Q4 software revenue grew ~10% year‑over‑year (software = $46.4M) and total Q4 bookings rose ~7% to $155.2M, supporting recurring revenue visibility. Read More.
• Positive Sentiment: New leadership and cost actions — CEO Jon Resnick (effective Jan 1, 2026) outlined an operational overhaul and signaled ~ $10M of near‑term cost avoidance / efficiency actions, which investors may view as supportive for margins and execution. Read More.
• Neutral Sentiment: Guidance mix — management guided FY‑2026 adjusted diluted EPS to $0.44–$0.48 and adj. EBITDA margin ~30–32%; the EPS range is near consensus but revenue growth guidance (0–4%) is conservative and will be read for cadence across the year. Read More.
• Neutral Sentiment: Full earnings package and materials available — management hosted an earnings call and provided slides/transcript for investors to assess forward cadence and execution priorities. Read More.
• Negative Sentiment: Q4 EPS miss and GAAP loss — adjusted diluted EPS for Q4 was $0.09 versus consensus ~$0.11, and GAAP net loss was $5.9M; adjusted metrics declined sequentially (adj. EBITDA -3% Q/Q vs prior year), highlighting near‑term profitability pressure from higher operating costs. Read More.
• Negative Sentiment: Revenue guidance below some street estimates — several outlets noted FY‑2026 revenue guidance implies slower growth versus consensus, which could pressure sentiment until execution on bookings and commercial improvements is demonstrated. Read More.

Certara Company Profile

Certara is a biosimulation software and services company that partners with pharmaceutical, biotechnology and medical device developers to accelerate drug discovery, development and regulatory approval. The company’s platform integrates quantitative pharmacology, real-world evidence, artificial intelligence and machine learning to model and simulate drug behavior across a range of therapeutic areas and patient populations. By applying these mechanistic and data-driven approaches, Certara helps its clients predict clinical outcomes, optimize dosing strategies and streamline decision-making throughout the product lifecycle.

The company’s offerings are divided into software tools and consulting services.