CF Industries (NYSE:CF) reported full-year 2025 results that management characterized as strong, supported by high operating rates, constructive global nitrogen market conditions, and continued shareholder returns. On the company’s fourth-quarter earnings call, executives also discussed an extended outage at the Yazoo City complex, progress at the Blue Point low-carbon ammonia joint venture, and market factors that have kept global nitrogen pricing above the levels implied by management’s indicative cost-curve framework.
2025 financial results and cash returns
President and CEO Chris Bohn said the company generated approximately $2.9 billion of adjusted EBITDA in 2025. Interim CFO Rich Hoker reported net earnings attributable to common stockholders of approximately $1.5 billion, or $8.97 per diluted share, with EBITDA of approximately $2.8 billion and adjusted EBITDA of approximately $2.9 billion.
Bohn said CF Industries converted adjusted EBITDA to free cash flow at a rate that he said outpaced material and industrial sector averages. He reported net cash from operations of $2.75 billion and free cash flow of approximately $1.8 billion in 2025. The company returned $1.7 billion to shareholders during the year, including over $1.3 billion to repurchase 16.6 million shares, which management said was about 10% of shares outstanding at the beginning of 2025.
Operational performance, safety, and the Yazoo City outage
Bohn highlighted a full-year recordable incident rate of 0.26 incidents per 200,000 hours worked and said CF Industries experienced its lowest-ever number of process safety events. The company produced 10.1 million tons of gross ammonia in 2025, representing a 97% utilization rate.
Management said that performance was “tempered” by an incident at the Yazoo City complex in Mississippi in November. Bohn said there were no significant injuries, but the event reinforced the importance of safety. The company does not expect the Yazoo City complex to resume production until the fourth quarter of 2026 at the earliest due to long lead times for certain equipment, and CF expects its network to produce about 9.5 million tons of gross ammonia in 2026.
In Q4, CF recorded $25 million of impairment related to the Yazoo City incident. Hoker said the company satisfied its business interruption insurance deductible in December and expects to begin receiving insurance proceeds based on lost profitability during 2026. On the Q&A, Hoker estimated the full-year 2026 EBITDA impact of not running Yazoo City at around $200 million, while noting the company’s goal is for business interruption proceeds to offset most or all of that impact, with timing of proceeds expected to be uneven as they are received.
Blue Point project progress and capital plans
Management provided updates on Blue Point, CF’s joint venture with JERA and Mitsui. Bohn said the project progressed from a positive final investment decision in April through meeting planned milestones by year-end, including partners securing offtake from new low-carbon ammonia demand sources and receiving Contract for Difference awards from the Japanese government. CF expects to begin civil work at the site in Q1 2026.
In response to questions about project spending, management said the overall capital forecast for Blue Point remains $3.7 billion, but the expected timing of cash outflows has been updated as the project advances and long-lead items are ordered. Bohn emphasized that the updated cash flow profile does not change CF’s view that the project is manageable alongside other capital allocation priorities. He also said the site could hold up to five world-scale ammonia plants of the size being built (1.5 million metric tons), though the company is focused on executing the first facility and did not provide a timeline for potential expansion.
Hoker said 2026 consolidated capital expenditures are expected to total about $1.3 billion, with CF’s portion approximately $950 million. That includes $550 million for sustaining capital expenditures across the existing network and about $400 million related to Blue Point and common infrastructure.
Management also said CF completed a $1 billion senior notes offering in Q4 to refinance $750 million of debt due in December 2026 and to strengthen financial flexibility.
Market conditions: tight supply, strong demand, and low-carbon premiums
Chief Commercial Officer Bert Frost said CF had expected the global nitrogen market to be more balanced over the last 12–18 months due to anticipated new capacity, but instead the market has remained tighter than expected. He cited delayed new capacity, global production not maintaining historical levels, and continuing demand growth. He said global urea prices were trading “well above” even the high end of the company’s indicative cost curve range.
Frost pointed to demand led by India, Brazil, and North America, as well as European buying ahead of implementation of the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). On the supply side, he cited constraints including natural gas availability in Trinidad and Iran, challenging production economics in Europe, and the end of seasonal Chinese urea exports in 2025, along with geopolitical concerns in the Middle East. Frost said he did not see catalysts in the first half of the year that would move prices toward cost-curve floor levels and called India’s February urea tender atypical for that time of year.
Executives also discussed North American dynamics. Frost said CF had a strong fall 2025 ammonia application season and suggested 2026 could be another year of high planted corn acres domestically, supporting nitrogen demand. He said channel inventories appear lower than historical averages and that Chinese exports are unlikely to return until the end of the Northern Hemisphere spring application season.
During the Q&A, Frost noted urea pricing at NOLA was about $450 per short ton, which he said was $100 higher than in December 2025. He said there could be “room to go” in North America, while also expecting a typical correction in the back half of the year as demand shifts between hemispheres.
On low-carbon products, management said customer interest continues to build. Frost said customers have shown willingness to pay a premium for low-carbon ammonia, and Bohn said the company had contracts in place for 2026 with demand for more. Management also discussed domestic efforts, including a pilot project with POET and U.S. retailers aimed at enabling low-carbon ethanol by building a low-carbon fertilizer supply chain.
Regarding CBAM, Bohn said the company did not model premiums in its returns for Blue Point or Donaldsonville low-carbon volumes, describing any premiums as upside. Management also said CF decided to stop investing in an electrolyzer pilot project at Donaldsonville, resulting in a $51 million impairment charge, citing its return profile.
Other issues raised on the call
- China exports: Frost discussed expectations for China’s urea exports, saying the company was being conservative in its assumptions and noting China’s policy posture has differed from prior peak-export years.
- Middle East risk: Frost said a significant portion of globally traded urea and ammonia supply moves through or near the Strait of Hormuz and warned a conflict could constrain supply meaningfully, also noting LNG flows through the same corridor.
- Brazil supply: Executives discussed potential restarts of Brazilian fertilizer plants, with Frost describing operational and logistics challenges and Bohn expressing skepticism about the cost and efficiency of bringing long-idled facilities back online.
Management concluded that, despite the Yazoo City outage and ongoing market uncertainties, CF believes it is positioned to generate substantial free cash flow, advance strategic growth projects such as Blue Point, and continue returning capital to shareholders.
About CF Industries (NYSE:CF)
CF Industries Holdings, Inc is a leading global manufacturer of hydrogen and nitrogen products for agricultural and industrial customers. The company specializes in the production of ammonia, granular urea, urea ammonium nitrate (UAN), nitric acid and ammonium nitrate, which serve as key inputs for fertilizer blends, industrial chemicals and other downstream applications.
Headquartered in Deerfield, Illinois, CF Industries operates production facilities and distribution terminals across North America and the United Kingdom.
