Geo Group (NYSE:GEO) Releases Q1 2026 Earnings Guidance

Geo Group (NYSE:GEO) updated its first quarter 2026 earnings guidance on Thursday. The company provided earnings per share guidance of 0.170-0.190 for the period, compared to the consensus earnings per share estimate of 0.250. The company issued revenue guidance of $680.0 million-$690.0 million, compared to the consensus revenue estimate of $692.0 million. Geo Group also updated its FY 2026 guidance to 0.990-1.070 EPS.

Wall Street Analysts Forecast Growth

Several equities analysts have weighed in on GEO shares. Zacks Research upgraded shares of Geo Group from a “strong sell” rating to a “hold” rating in a report on Friday, January 9th. Jones Trading decreased their price objective on Geo Group from $37.00 to $33.00 and set a “buy” rating on the stock in a report on Friday. Weiss Ratings reissued a “hold (c)” rating on shares of Geo Group in a research note on Monday, December 29th. Finally, Wall Street Zen upgraded Geo Group from a “hold” rating to a “buy” rating in a research report on Saturday, December 13th. Three analysts have rated the stock with a Buy rating and two have assigned a Hold rating to the company. Based on data from MarketBeat.com, Geo Group has a consensus rating of “Moderate Buy” and a consensus target price of $34.00.

Geo Group Stock Performance

NYSE:GEO opened at $13.44 on Friday. Geo Group has a fifty-two week low of $12.81 and a fifty-two week high of $32.09. The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.02, a quick ratio of 1.62 and a current ratio of 1.62. The company has a 50 day moving average price of $16.57 and a 200 day moving average price of $18.34. The stock has a market capitalization of $1.87 billion, a P/E ratio of 7.91 and a beta of 0.73.

Geo Group (NYSE:GEO) last released its quarterly earnings results on Thursday, February 12th. The real estate investment trust reported $0.25 EPS for the quarter, hitting analysts’ consensus estimates of $0.25. Geo Group had a return on equity of 7.42% and a net margin of 9.41%.The company had revenue of $707.70 million for the quarter, compared to analysts’ expectations of $667.23 million. During the same period in the prior year, the firm earned $0.13 earnings per share. The firm’s revenue was up 16.5% compared to the same quarter last year. Geo Group has set its Q1 2026 guidance at 0.170-0.190 EPS and its FY 2026 guidance at 0.990-1.070 EPS. Equities research analysts forecast that Geo Group will post 0.83 EPS for the current year.

Geo Group News Roundup

Here are the key news stories impacting Geo Group this week:

• Positive Sentiment: Q4 revenue beat and year-over-year growth: GEO reported Q4 revenue of $707.7M (up 16.5% YoY), topping analyst estimates and showing improving top-line momentum. Business Wire: Q4 Results
• Positive Sentiment: Founder returns as CEO: Founder and Executive Chairman Dr. George C. Zoley will resume the CEO role effective March 1, 2026, which investors may view as a stabilizing move given his long tenure. Business Wire: Corporate Reorganization
• Neutral Sentiment: EPS in line with estimates: GEO reported GAAP EPS of $0.25, matching consensus and up from $0.13 a year ago—earnings met expectations but didn’t surprise to the upside. Zacks: Earnings Match
• Negative Sentiment: Guidance well below Street expectations: GEO set FY‑2026 EPS guidance of $0.99–$1.07 (consensus ~$1.27) and Q1 EPS of $0.17–$0.19 (consensus ~$0.25), and provided revenue ranges slightly below/staggering versus estimates — the guidance cut is the primary driver of the stock weakness. Business Wire: Guidance
• Negative Sentiment: Legal and reputational pressures persist: A denied rehearing on an injunction and ongoing litigation/activist shareholder criticisms (including disputes over human-rights related votes) increase operational and reputational risk. Courthouse News: No Rehearing
• Negative Sentiment: Market reaction reflects mixed print: Several outlets note shares moved down after the release as weak guidance outweighed the revenue beat. Investing.com: Market Reaction

Institutional Inflows and Outflows

Several hedge funds and other institutional investors have recently made changes to their positions in the business. Geneos Wealth Management Inc. increased its stake in Geo Group by 245.1% during the 2nd quarter. Geneos Wealth Management Inc. now owns 1,101 shares of the real estate investment trust’s stock worth $26,000 after buying an additional 782 shares during the period. NewEdge Advisors LLC grew its stake in shares of Geo Group by 81.9% in the first quarter. NewEdge Advisors LLC now owns 1,864 shares of the real estate investment trust’s stock worth $54,000 after acquiring an additional 839 shares in the last quarter. CANADA LIFE ASSURANCE Co increased its position in shares of Geo Group by 1.2% during the third quarter. CANADA LIFE ASSURANCE Co now owns 125,217 shares of the real estate investment trust’s stock worth $2,627,000 after acquiring an additional 1,444 shares during the period. Tidal Investments LLC raised its stake in shares of Geo Group by 6.6% in the second quarter. Tidal Investments LLC now owns 23,595 shares of the real estate investment trust’s stock valued at $565,000 after acquiring an additional 1,467 shares in the last quarter. Finally, MIRAE ASSET GLOBAL ETFS HOLDINGS Ltd. raised its stake in shares of Geo Group by 4.6% in the first quarter. MIRAE ASSET GLOBAL ETFS HOLDINGS Ltd. now owns 75,766 shares of the real estate investment trust’s stock valued at $2,213,000 after acquiring an additional 3,309 shares in the last quarter. Hedge funds and other institutional investors own 76.10% of the company’s stock.

Geo Group Company Profile

The GEO Group (NYSE:GEO) is a leading provider of correctional, detention and community reentry services to government agencies around the world. As a real estate investment trust, the company specializes in the design, financing, development and operation of secure facilities for adult and juvenile offenders, immigration detainees and individuals requiring mental health treatment or substance abuse programming. GEO’s integrated service model also encompasses electronic monitoring, rehabilitative programming and post-release supervision aimed at reducing recidivism and enhancing public safety.

GEO’s portfolio spans a range of facility types, including medium- and maximum-security correctional institutions, residential reentry centers, mental health treatment units and immigration detention centers.