Upstart (NASDAQ:UPST) Posts Earnings Results, Misses Estimates By $0.30 EPS

Upstart (NASDAQ:UPST) released its quarterly earnings data on Tuesday. The company reported $0.17 EPS for the quarter, missing analysts’ consensus estimates of $0.47 by ($0.30), FiscalAI reports. Upstart had a return on equity of 6.49% and a net margin of 5.13%.The business had revenue of $296.09 million for the quarter, compared to the consensus estimate of $288.54 million. During the same period in the previous year, the business posted $0.26 earnings per share. Upstart’s revenue was up 35.2% on a year-over-year basis.

Here are the key takeaways from Upstart’s conference call:

• Founder-led succession announced: Paul Gu will become CEO on May 1 with Dave Girouard shifting to Executive Chairman and several senior leadership moves (new CFO Andrea, Grant as CTO, Sanjay as President & Chief Capital Officer), signaling an orderly, continuity-focused transition.
• Strong 2025 financials and profitability: Upstart delivered >$1.0B in total revenue (up 64% YoY), full-year net income of $54M and Adjusted EBITDA of $230M (22% margin), with Q4 revenue ~$296M and net income ~$19M.
• Rapid product expansion and de‑risking of the balance sheet: Auto and home originations accelerated (auto +340% YoY, home +350% YoY), ~70% of Q4 funding for those products came from third parties, and loans held on the balance sheet fell ~20% sequentially as external capital relationships scale.
• Tech and data moat strengthening: Rolled out Model 24/25, crossed 100M borrower repayment events, and reported material gains in separation accuracy, automation and verification (e.g., 24% more channel originations, 0.8% lower defaults), reinforcing their proprietary AI advantage.
• Guidance and margin strategy: Management targets ~35% CAGR for 2025–2028 and 2026 revenue of ~$1.4B with ~21% Adjusted EBITDA, while warning contribution margins will intentionally moderate as the company prioritizes larger secured markets and customer lifetime value for long-term growth.

Upstart Stock Performance

Upstart stock opened at $32.91 on Thursday. The business’s fifty day moving average is $45.29 and its two-hundred day moving average is $52.76. The firm has a market cap of $3.20 billion, a P/E ratio of 78.35 and a beta of 2.38. Upstart has a 52 week low of $31.40 and a 52 week high of $96.43.

Upstart News Summary

Here are the key news stories impacting Upstart this week:

• Positive Sentiment: Company raised FY‑2026 revenue guidance above consensus, and management highlighted growth in originations — a boost to top‑line expectations. Read More.
• Positive Sentiment: Analysts maintained buy ratings with multi‑week price targets (Needham reaffirmed a buy at $56; Truist kept a buy but trimmed its target), offering some sell‑side support for the stock. Read More.
• Positive Sentiment: Large, concentrated call buying occurred (about 56k calls bought), which can signal short‑term bullish positioning from options traders. Read More.
• Neutral Sentiment: Q4 revenue grew ~35% YoY and beat estimates (~$296M vs. ~$289M), but EPS narrowly missed consensus (reported $0.46 vs $0.47), leaving the quarter mixed rather than clearly bullish. Read More.
• Negative Sentiment: Management’s 2026 margin guidance disappointed investors and raised concerns about funding execution and profitability — the primary reason for the intraday weakness. Read More.
• Negative Sentiment: Leadership change: CEO stepping down / leadership evolution was announced; such transitions can increase near‑term uncertainty until the new CEO’s strategy and execution are proven. Read More. and Read More.
• Negative Sentiment: Regulatory/legal risk: Upstart disclosed rising data‑privacy compliance and legal exposure as stricter laws increase costs — a potential margin headwind over time. Read More.
• Negative Sentiment: High option volume has included heavy put buying the prior day (about 49.7k puts), indicating sizable bearish hedging/speculation as well — adding to implied volatility and downside pressure. Read More.

Insider Activity

In other Upstart news, insider Natalia Mirgorodskaya sold 762 shares of the firm’s stock in a transaction dated Tuesday, November 25th. The shares were sold at an average price of $38.91, for a total value of $29,649.42. Following the completion of the sale, the insider owned 26,398 shares in the company, valued at approximately $1,027,146.18. This trade represents a 2.81% decrease in their position. The transaction was disclosed in a legal filing with the SEC, which can be accessed through this hyperlink. Also, Director Kerry Whorton Cooper sold 1,500 shares of the business’s stock in a transaction dated Friday, December 12th. The stock was sold at an average price of $50.00, for a total transaction of $75,000.00. Following the completion of the transaction, the director directly owned 23,934 shares of the company’s stock, valued at approximately $1,196,700. This represents a 5.90% decrease in their ownership of the stock. Additional details regarding this sale are available in the official SEC disclosure. Over the last ninety days, insiders sold 16,707 shares of company stock worth $633,080. 16.67% of the stock is owned by corporate insiders.

Institutional Inflows and Outflows

Several institutional investors have recently bought and sold shares of UPST. Sepio Capital LP lifted its holdings in Upstart by 518.0% during the 4th quarter. Sepio Capital LP now owns 33,405 shares of the company’s stock worth $1,461,000 after buying an additional 28,000 shares in the last quarter. Empowered Funds LLC acquired a new stake in shares of Upstart in the 4th quarter valued at $40,000. Janney Montgomery Scott LLC raised its position in shares of Upstart by 18.9% during the fourth quarter. Janney Montgomery Scott LLC now owns 13,111 shares of the company’s stock worth $573,000 after acquiring an additional 2,084 shares during the last quarter. Daiwa Securities Group Inc. raised its position in shares of Upstart by 40.7% during the fourth quarter. Daiwa Securities Group Inc. now owns 1,372 shares of the company’s stock worth $60,000 after acquiring an additional 397 shares during the last quarter. Finally, CIBC Bancorp USA Inc. acquired a new position in shares of Upstart during the third quarter valued at $456,000. Institutional investors own 63.01% of the company’s stock.

Analysts Set New Price Targets

A number of brokerages have commented on UPST. JPMorgan Chase & Co. cut their price target on shares of Upstart from $88.00 to $65.00 and set an “overweight” rating for the company in a research note on Wednesday, November 5th. Piper Sandler cut their target price on Upstart from $80.00 to $56.00 and set an “overweight” rating for the company in a research report on Wednesday, November 5th. Truist Financial decreased their price target on Upstart from $59.00 to $49.00 and set a “buy” rating on the stock in a research note on Wednesday. Morgan Stanley set a $45.00 price objective on Upstart in a research note on Wednesday, November 5th. Finally, Citigroup cut their price objective on Upstart from $100.00 to $80.00 and set a “buy” rating for the company in a report on Wednesday, November 5th. Five equities research analysts have rated the stock with a Buy rating, five have given a Hold rating and two have assigned a Sell rating to the stock. Based on data from MarketBeat.com, the stock presently has a consensus rating of “Hold” and an average price target of $54.90.

Upstart Company Profile

Upstart Holdings, Inc operates a cloud-based lending marketplace that leverages artificial intelligence and machine learning to assess borrower creditworthiness. The company partners with banks and credit unions, providing its proprietary AI models and underwriting platform to facilitate consumer credit products. By focusing on non‐traditional data points—such as education, employment history and other real‐time indicators—Upstart seeks to improve approval rates and lower loss rates compared with conventional credit scoring methods.

Upstart’s core offering centers on unsecured personal loans, which borrowers can use for purposes such as debt consolidation, home improvements or major purchases.