Mattel (NASDAQ:MAT) Posts Earnings Results, Misses Estimates By $0.14 EPS

Mattel (NASDAQ:MAT) announced its earnings results on Tuesday. The company reported $0.39 earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter, missing the consensus estimate of $0.53 by ($0.14), FiscalAI reports. Mattel had a net margin of 8.27% and a return on equity of 20.60%. The business had revenue of $1.77 billion for the quarter, compared to the consensus estimate of $1.85 billion. During the same quarter last year, the firm posted $0.35 earnings per share. The business’s quarterly revenue was up 7.3% compared to the same quarter last year. Mattel updated its FY 2026 guidance to 1.180-1.300 EPS.

Here are the key takeaways from Mattel’s conference call:

• Mattel agreed to acquire full ownership of Mattel163 (total valuation $380M; $159M purchase for NetEase’s 50%); the deal is largely funded from JV cash, is expected to be immediately accretive, and materially scales Mattel’s self‑published mobile games and digital customer‑acquisition capabilities.
• Q4 gross billings grew 6% (POS +3% globally) but U.S. December orders underperformed, leaving full‑year results below expectations; the company increased promotions and took inventory actions that pressured margins and reduced 2025 profitability.
• 2026 guidance targets 3%–6% constant‑currency net sales growth, ~50% adjusted gross margin, $550M–$600M adjusted operating income and $1.18–$1.30 adjusted EPS, while Mattel plans ~$150M of strategic investments (digital games, first‑party data, D2C and performance marketing) that will weigh on 2026 but are expected to be self‑funding and drive acceleration in 2027.
• The company is moving to a brand‑centric strategy to capture IP value across toys, entertainment, D2C and digital — highlighted by global Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles rights from 2027, two Mattel IP films in 2026 (Masters of the Universe theatrical and Matchbox on Apple TV), and the strong launch of Mattel Brick Shop — positioning for higher‑margin growth over time.

Mattel Stock Down 2.2%

MAT opened at $21.06 on Wednesday. The company has a market capitalization of $6.55 billion, a PE ratio of 15.72, a price-to-earnings-growth ratio of 2.28 and a beta of 0.70. The firm has a 50-day simple moving average of $20.76 and a two-hundred day simple moving average of $19.15. The company has a quick ratio of 1.18, a current ratio of 1.60 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.77. Mattel has a 52 week low of $13.94 and a 52 week high of $22.48.

Hedge Funds Weigh In On Mattel

Institutional investors have recently added to or reduced their stakes in the company. Public Employees Retirement System of Ohio lifted its position in Mattel by 0.6% during the third quarter. Public Employees Retirement System of Ohio now owns 100,310 shares of the company’s stock valued at $1,688,000 after purchasing an additional 623 shares during the last quarter. Sei Investments Co. increased its position in Mattel by 1.7% during the second quarter. Sei Investments Co. now owns 45,736 shares of the company’s stock valued at $902,000 after acquiring an additional 758 shares during the last quarter. Mercer Global Advisors Inc. ADV raised its stake in shares of Mattel by 6.7% in the third quarter. Mercer Global Advisors Inc. ADV now owns 16,397 shares of the company’s stock valued at $276,000 after acquiring an additional 1,025 shares during the period. MIRAE ASSET GLOBAL ETFS HOLDINGS Ltd. raised its stake in shares of Mattel by 74.6% in the first quarter. MIRAE ASSET GLOBAL ETFS HOLDINGS Ltd. now owns 3,437 shares of the company’s stock valued at $67,000 after acquiring an additional 1,468 shares during the period. Finally, Redwood Investment Management LLC lifted its holdings in shares of Mattel by 2.2% in the 2nd quarter. Redwood Investment Management LLC now owns 69,221 shares of the company’s stock worth $1,365,000 after acquiring an additional 1,468 shares during the last quarter. Hedge funds and other institutional investors own 97.15% of the company’s stock.

Key Mattel News

Here are the key news stories impacting Mattel this week:

• Positive Sentiment: Mattel agreed to buy full ownership of its Mattel163 mobile‑games studio, a strategic move to accelerate its digital games capabilities and address a key investor concern about the company’s digital pipeline. Mattel to Acquire Full Ownership of Mattel163
• Positive Sentiment: Ongoing brand and licensing initiatives (Barbie anniversary content and new TMNT consumer products collaboration) support long‑term revenue streams from entertainment and consumer products. Barbie Anniversary Special
• Neutral Sentiment: Top‑line grew year‑over‑year (revenue up ~7.3%), indicating demand wasn’t uniformly weak, but growth missed Street expectations — mixed signal for investors weighing durability of sales momentum. Earnings release and slide deck
• Neutral Sentiment: Unusual options activity with a large spike in call buying suggests some traders are positioning for a rebound or event‑driven volatility, but options flow is not a direct signal of fundamentals.
• Negative Sentiment: Q4 EPS and revenue missed consensus materially ($0.39 vs. $0.53; $1.77B vs. ~$1.84B) — the core earnings miss is the primary near‑term driver of the price drop. Zacks: Mattel Misses Q4
• Negative Sentiment: FY‑2026 guidance was markedly below Street expectations (EPS guide 1.18–1.30 vs. ~1.75 consensus), prompting a sharp re‑pricing of forward earnings and valuation. Reuters: Forecast Below Estimates
• Negative Sentiment: Market reaction was severe, with multiple outlets reporting a large one‑day decline after hours as investors punished the combination of the miss and weak guidance. Barron’s: Mattel Stock Plunges After Earnings

Wall Street Analysts Forecast Growth

A number of equities analysts recently commented on the company. JPMorgan Chase & Co. decreased their target price on Mattel from $25.00 to $23.00 and set a “neutral” rating on the stock in a report on Monday, October 27th. Roth Mkm lifted their price objective on Mattel from $20.00 to $22.00 and gave the company a “neutral” rating in a research report on Wednesday, February 4th. DA Davidson reduced their target price on shares of Mattel from $30.00 to $25.00 and set a “buy” rating for the company in a report on Wednesday, October 22nd. The Goldman Sachs Group cut shares of Mattel from a “buy” rating to a “neutral” rating and set a $21.00 target price on the stock. in a research note on Friday, January 9th. Finally, Cfra Research lowered shares of Mattel from a “moderate buy” rating to a “hold” rating in a research report on Wednesday, October 22nd. Two equities research analysts have rated the stock with a Buy rating, seven have issued a Hold rating and one has issued a Sell rating to the stock. According to MarketBeat, Mattel has an average rating of “Hold” and a consensus target price of $23.86.

Mattel Company Profile

Mattel, Inc is a leading global toy company headquartered in El Segundo, California. Founded in 1945 by Harold “Matt” Matson and Elliot and Ruth Handler, the company has grown into a major player in the toy and family products industry. Mattel designs, manufactures, and markets a broad range of toys, games and entertainment products under well-known brands, including Barbie, Hot Wheels, Fisher-Price, American Girl, Thomas & Friends, UNO and Matchbox. In addition to its proprietary labels, Mattel holds licenses with global entertainment franchises, partnering with Disney, Warner Bros., WWE and other studios to create character-driven play experiences.