ArcelorMittal (NYSE:MT) executives used the company’s latest earnings call to highlight progress on safety initiatives, a shifting trade-policy landscape—particularly in Europe—and the growing contribution from strategic projects to earnings and cash flow.
CEO highlights safety progress, trade-policy tailwinds, and growth strategy
CEO Aditya Mittal opened the call by framing 2025 performance against three priorities: safety, trade policy, and growth. On safety, Mittal said the company’s three-year safety transformation plan is showing “real, measurable progress,” with improvements across key safety KPIs and an emphasis on “fatality prevention.” He said custom safety roadmaps are central to strengthening safety culture and risk management as ArcelorMittal targets “zero fatalities and serious injuries.”
On growth, Mittal said strategic investments are beginning to pay off and should continue to build momentum. He reiterated that strategic projects are expected to add an additional $1.6 billion of EBITDA in the near future, and emphasized energy transition initiatives, including expanding renewables, building electrical steel capacity for electrification and mobility, and expanding electric furnace (EF) footprint where economics support returns.
2025 financial performance: EBITDA, strategic project contribution, and cash generation
CFO Genuino Christino said 2025 demonstrated the “resilience” of the business, with EBITDA of $6.5 billion, or $121 EBITDA per ton shipped. He characterized the result as reflecting structural improvements in earnings power, supported by an optimized asset base and diversified footprint.
Christino said strategic projects contributed $0.7 billion of new EBITDA in 2025, driven by a “record performance in Liberia,” renewables build-out in India, and a “significant strengthening” of the U.S. footprint after the full consolidation of Calvert.
On cash flows, Christino said ArcelorMittal generated $1.9 billion of investable cash flow in 2025, following $2.0 billion the prior year. He said investable cash flow generated since 2021 totals $23.5 billion. For 2025 allocations, he cited $1.1 billion directed to high-return strategic growth projects, $0.7 billion returned to shareholders, and $0.2 billion deployed to M&A, alongside $1.7 billion of net debt assumed through those transactions.
ArcelorMittal proposed a base dividend of $0.60 per share, which Christino said doubles the dividend over the past five years. He also pointed to the share buyback program, noting the share count has been reduced by 38% over five years—something he said was unmatched by peers.
Outlook and near-term bridge: higher shipments expected, price benefits more visible in Q2
Looking to 2026, Christino said the company expects higher steel production and shipments across all regions, supported by operational improvements and strengthened trade protections. He added that management is confident ArcelorMittal can continue generating positive free cash flow in 2026 and beyond, while staying disciplined under its capital return policy.
In Q&A, Christino discussed a quarter-to-quarter bridge and said the biggest sequential change is expected in North America, where operational problems in Mexico have been “largely resolved.” He said North America should see recovering volumes in Q1 and higher prices, with no repeat of the operational costs seen previously in Mexico. In Europe, he said higher shipments are expected in Q1, with some price improvement but described the pricing benefit as “really more a second quarter phenomenon.” He also said costs are expected to rise with changes in raw materials and CO2 costs following CBAM implementation.
Europe: capacity flexibility, TRQ timing, and “economic decarbonization” approach
Responding to questions on Europe, Mittal said ArcelorMittal has idle capacity it can bring back “quite quickly” and suggested it could meet the expected timing of the TRQ, which management’s “latest estimate” put at July 1. He cited multiple sources of available capacity, including ramp-up at the Sestao mini mill, a new electric furnace in Gijón, and spare blast furnace capacity. He said the signposts for bringing capacity back are customer demand and the ability to earn a “healthy and sustainable return” on capital employed in Europe.
Asked about European decarbonization plans, Mittal described ArcelorMittal’s approach as “economic decarbonization,” emphasizing that projects must make economic sense. He said prerequisites previously identified—energy conditions and a level playing field on carbon costs—have been met, noting an energy contract signed in France with EDF and the implementation of CBAM. He said the company is evaluating decarbonizing its French operations, specifically the Dunkirk facility, by setting up an electric arc furnace, but stressed an intent to proceed sequentially rather than taking on multiple major projects at once. He said investors should remain comfortable with CapEx guidance of $4.5 billion to $5.0 billion.
Mittal also addressed the EU ETS review in the context of what he called a broader shift toward supporting strategic industries. He highlighted high European energy costs relative to global averages and argued the steel industry cannot decarbonize at the pace implied by the current ETS design. He added that CBAM provides a level playing field on carbon costs for imports.
Other key topics: India expansion plans, Liberia agreement, Calvert, and CBAM implementation details
Outside Europe, Mittal discussed India, stating that demand is growing at 6% to 8%. He said ArcelorMittal’s Hazira facility currently has about 9 million tons of capacity and is completing an expansion targeted to reach 15 million tons of design capacity, with startup toward the end of the year and completion in 2027. He also referenced an additional greenfield facility option on India’s eastern coast at “Rajayyapeta,” noting that the company has not announced the capacity but said it is safe to assume it would be about 8 million tons. Mittal described a long-term vision to reach design capacity “in excess of 40 million tons.”
On Liberia, Christino explained that 2025 CapEx came in slightly below the company’s range largely because of the timing of the MDA extension, which was recently finalized. He said ArcelorMittal expects to pay $200 million to the government in Q1, which will be capitalized and amortized over the life of the new MDA extending to 2050. Mittal added that rail infrastructure can accommodate up to 30 million tons with minimal additional infrastructure, though it may require additional rolling stock, and said work is underway to study how to increase mine production toward 30 million tons at low capital costs that meet return thresholds.
On Calvert, management said ramp-up is progressing and the company expects a meaningful improvement in Q1, with an expectation to be running at capacity toward the end of the second half. Mittal said approval timing for a second EAF is not “immediate,” though the company has outlined organic growth plans at Calvert and is also building an electrical steel facility there, with plans to double EAF capacity.
Regarding CBAM, Mittal said that although CBAM took effect on January 1, 2026, product produced before that date does not bear CO2 cost under the legislation. He said import offers are now including CBAM costs and that European spot pricing is reflecting, at least in part, CBAM effects. He also said the company has not seen circumvention so far, while noting that further tightening measures are under consideration, including issues related to downstream products, exports support, and anti-circumvention rules.
Christino also provided depreciation and amortization guidance, saying it should be in the range of $2.9 billion to $3.0 billion, and characterized a Q4 North America D&A increase as an end-of-year adjustment tied to estimates and asset lives rather than a full-year run rate.
About ArcelorMittal (NYSE:MT)
ArcelorMittal is a multinational steel manufacturing company formed in 2006 through the merger of Arcelor and Mittal Steel. Headquartered in Luxembourg, the company is one of the world’s largest producers of steel and operates an integrated value chain that spans raw material extraction, steelmaking, processing and distribution. Its product portfolio includes flat and long carbon steel products, coated and specialty steels, tubular products and value-added solutions tailored for sectors such as automotive, construction, household appliances, energy and packaging.
ArcelorMittal’s operations are global in scope, with production facilities, distribution networks and commercial activities across Europe, the Americas, Asia, Africa and the Commonwealth of Independent States.
