MLB Trade Rumors: Royals Should Move James Shields

The July 31st trade deadline is coming up this week, and so far there has been a paucity of big deals. With the second Wild Card allowing more teams to stay in contention, teams have been reluctant to deal away star players. The pitching market is especially thin.

Earlier the Oakland Athletics sprung big for Chicago Cubs ace Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel. However, the Philadelphia Phillies have stated they won’t be dealing Cole Hamels, and the recent good play of the Tampa Bay Rays makes it more likely that they will hang onto David Price.

While the Kansas City Royals don’t appear to be actively shopping James Shields, they should do so. After dropping a 10-3 decision to the Cleveland Indians, the Royals are sitting at 53-51. That puts them 5.5 games back of the Detroit Tigers and two games back of the Toronto Blue Jays for the second wild card spot. Their playoff odds are 17.8 percent, though almost all of that is tied up in the race for the second wild card.

Shields has pitched well for the Royals after they dealt him to the Rays for both Wil Myers and Jake Odorizzi. He’s pitched to a 3.58 ERA this year, though with 13 unearned runs, that figure is a little misleading. His strikeout and walk rates sit at 19.8 percent and 4.8 respectively. It’s the second consecutive season where his strikeout rate has dropped, but he’s managed to offset some of that decline by posting his lowest walk rate since 2008.

Going forward, Steamer and ZiPS both project slightly over +1 fWAR, so even in limited time he could help a contending team. Of course he could also helps the Royals‘ playoff chances, slim as they are. Furthermore, he could play a key role in a playoff run. The St. Louis Cardinals are in need of starting pitching and they are flush with prospects. Even with their depleted farm system, the Los Angeles Angels should be looking to strengthen their rotation. Don’t think the Atlanta Braves want to keep relying on Aaron Harang, and the Los Angeles Dodgers could seek a replacement for Dan Haren.

The Royals have the longest active postseason drought at 28 years. There appears to be a feeling among ownership and the front office that they should be buyers rather than sellers in an attempt to end that drought.

However, the reward for making the playoffs this year is far less than what it used to be. If the Royals do manage to pass the three teams in front of them, they will be sent to the West Coast for a one game playoff with either the A’s or the Angels, owners of the two best records in the major leagues.

On the other hand, they could trade Shields and receive a big return. As a frame of reference, Jake Peavy was recently dealt to the San Francisco Giants in exchange for two actual prospects. If Peavy, a rental veteran who has struggled this season, can get two prospects, imagine what the Royals could get for Shields. The Royals should take advantage of the shrinking market for pitchers and trade Shields.