Going into the season, it appeared that the St. Louis Cardinals had more pitching than they knew what to do with. While their staff has sported a 3.28 ERA with 9.9 fWAR up to this point, a trade acquisition seems to be in order. Michael Wacha and Joe Kelly are all on the shelf with injuries. Jaime Garcia will undergo season ending surgery. Shelby Miller has been very bad for quite some time now.
As of now, the Cardinals are five game back of the Milwaukee Brewers in the NL Central, and one game behind the Washington Nationals in the Wild Card. Fangraphs gives them a 53.6 percent chance of making the playoffs and a 41.1 percent chance of winning the division.
Adam Wainwright has been excellent. The veteran right-hander owns the lowest ERA in baseball, and leads all National League pitchers with 3.1 fWAR. Lance Lynn has been very solid, though his K-BB% is actually a little lower than last year. Prior to the injury, Wacha was showing that last season wasn’t a fluke, and Garcia had a 2.95 xFIP. At this moment, Carlos Martinez is the Cardinals No. 3 starter. He runs it up in the triple digits, but doesn’t have reliable secondary stuff. Martinez’ last start was encouraging, but the Cardinals may prefer to move him to the pen. Marco Gonzalez and Tyler Lyons have made spot starts, but neither are more than gap filler.
Ian Kennedy and Brandon McCarthy are attractive options, Cliff Lee could be a big difference maker if he comes back strong from his elbow injury, and veterans A.J. Burnett and Bartolo Colon will also be available.
The Cardinals have no shortage of prospects. If they want Price, the Rays will likely ask about mega-prospect Oscar Taveras. 1.5 years of Price won’t be enough to get Taveras, who just turned 22 and has dominated the minor leagues. However, if the Rays were to sweeten the package with Ben Zobrist, a veteran who would be very helpful in addressing the Cardinals issues at second base, a deal might be in order.
McCarthy has an unseemly 5.01 ERA, but his 2.89 xFIP is actually better than Wainwright’s. It’s unlikely he’ll continue to pitch at that level, but by the same token, his ERA should drop significantly. He’s added significant velocity to his fastball, and it’s resulted in more strikeouts and more grounders. The Arizona Diamondbacks right-hander would be a nice pickup that wouldn’t break the prospect bank.
Kennedy has rebounded from an awful 2013 season by posting the best strikeout and walk rates of his career at 25.4 percent and 6.1 percent, respectively. Until Wacha comes back, he would be the Cardinals second best pitcher behind Wainwright. Burnett and Colon appear to be less likely if only for the fact that they wouldn’t represent significant upgrades.
It will be interesting to see how the Philadelphia Phillies deal with Lee, as General Manager Ruben Amaro Jr. hasn’t been in the business of selling during his tenure. Last year he reportedly asked for three or four prospects in exchange for Lee, who is owed $25 million a year through this season and next.
Whatever the case, it appears very likely that the Cardinals will seek an upgrade rather than try to catch the Brewers with Gonzales and Lyons in the rotation. That upgrade might come in a blockbuster deal for Price, or it could be a smaller move such as a trade for McCarthy. It seems odd that they would be in this situation given the embarrassment of pitching riches they had in Spring Training, but this is a reminder that even the best laid plans go awry.
