After trading closer Jim Johnson to the Oakland Athletics in exchange for Jemile Weeks, the Baltimore Orioles freed up about $11 million for their 2014 payroll.
The Orioles already have two solid outfielders in Adam Jones and Nick Markakis. However, Nate Mclouth is likely to depart via free agency.
With Steve Pearce, Jason Pridie, and Nolan Reimold, the in-house options aren’t very promising. That trio totaled -0.4 fWAR in 288 plate appearances in 2013.
Cruz is not without his warts. First of all, he served a 50 game suspension for PED use in 2013. Also, he’ll turn 34 during the next season.
Most importantly, Cruz is three years removed from being a productive player. In 2010, he hit .318/.374/.576 with 4.9 fWAR despite playing just 108 games. Over the last three years, he’s totaled just 3.9 fWAR.
He still has power, as his 80 home runs since 2011 demonstrate, but Cruz doesn’t offer much other than that. His on-base percentage is just .319 over the last three years. Cruz grades out as a poor baserunner and one of the worst defensive outfielders in baseball in that time frame.
Steamer projects more of the same from Cruz in 2014. They show a .260/.322/.478 line and 25 home runs. That looks nice, but with his poor baserunning and defense it adds up to just 1.6 fWAR. If the rumors of three years and $42 million are in the ballpark, that looks like a huge overpay.
If the Orioles are going to spend upwards of $40 million in free agency this offseason, they would be better off trying to fill a hole in their starting rotation. Scott Kazmir would have been a nice addition, but that ship sailed.
Ubaldo Jimenez and Hiroki Kuroda are still available. Or perhaps they could make a big splash and get involved in the Masahiro Tanaka bidding war provided the MLB and the NPB can come to an agreement.
In any case, there are lots of better ways to spend $40 million than throwing it at Nelson Cruz.
