Kyle Lohse and Michael Bourn remain the biggest free agent names still available this winter and neither one has a clear landing spot. Lohse, in particular, seems to have an intriguing situation. We’re now fully aware of the power of draft pick compensation which puts Lohse in the weird universe of not being elite enough to command a big deal, but being too good by being worthy of rejecting a qualifying offer. Now he will need a team who is ready to compete (or they wouldn’t waste the money), has a rotation need, money to spend and won’t mind losing its draft spot in the first round.
Lohse has had back to back solid years in St. Louis, the home of mediocre pitchers looking great. The 34 year old has tossed just about 400 innings and won 30 games for the Birds the past two seasons, easily having his best year as a starter last season when he threw to the tune of 211 innings (career best), 2.86 ERA (career low), just 192 hits and a 6.1K/9 ratio (his highest in a full season since 2002).
Still, heading into his mid 30’s and having a pretty mediocre career before the age of 33 doesn’t imply a big payday despite a largely successful walk year, and Lohse is clearly not being considered a difference-maker, which is why he’s still out there.
Lohse figures to make somewhere between Dan Haren‘s one year , $13 million dollar deal and Dempster’s 2 year, $26.5 million dollar deal. Dempster is older and blew up when he was traded to the AL last season, but he has been better, longer. Haren offers the most upside of the three, but is coming off the worst season. Lohse could command a two year deal in the neighborhood of about $24 million before March.
The only teams who fit the payroll requirements and are likely willing to spend somewhat big on pitching needs are the: Pirates, Mariners, Brewers and Phillies. The Rangers seem to have lost interest in Lohse and Bourn, and the Indians and Diamondbacks appear to be taking a different approach. Of those four, the Brewers rarely spend big in Free Agency and the Pirates have been more or less inactive in the starting pitching market this winter, electing to go in-house.
The Mariners are a strong candidate and may pull off a lesser version of the Cliff Lee tactic a few years ago. Seattle may sign Lohse, rely on its ballpark for Lohse to continue to post front-end numbers, then flip him for prospects midway through this season on a two year deal. Lohse would benefit because he’s in a pitcher’s park, Seattle would benefit because it would add depth past Felix Hernandez after an offseason mainly spent on offense and it has plenty of pitching prospects including Danny Hultzen, Taijuan Walker, James Paxton and Brandan Maurer so losing the pick wouldn’t be as damaging as it would for other teams.
The Phillies remain the only other logical destination as a team with a closing window, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels and Roy Halladay still in the rotation, and some spotty depth beyond John Lannan and Kyle Kendrick. Signing Lohse at worst can provide a trade piece for an outfielder later in the year, again, with Seattle as a potential trade partner. The downside would be an unknown of where the Phillies are willing to land with payroll and giving up the draft pick for a team sorely lacking in farm system depth. Still, despite a relatively quiet offseason, Lohse could be considered enough of a difference maker for the Phillies to bite, given a .500 finish last year and a quickly aging core in an extremely competitive division.
