David Price is the big prize among starting pitchers on the trade block. Jeff Samardzija has already been dealt, and it remains to be seen whether Cole Hamels or Cliff Lee will change teams by the deadline. Beyond that, there are plenty of mid level options.
Two veteran hurlers, Bartolo Colon and A.J. Burnett, have seen their names mentioned frequently in the last week or so. The New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies are six and 12 games under .500 respectively.
Colon was signed to a two-year deal worth $20 million this offseason. The 41 year-old right-hander owns an ERA that is nearly 1.5 runs higher, but his strikeout rate has increased from 15.2 percent to 18.0 percent, while his walk rate has dropped from 3.8 percent to 3.4 percent. His park-adjusted xFIP is 100, exactly the same as last season. For the most part, Colon has been the same pitcher, though Citi Field isn’t quite as spacious as the Coliseum.
That’s something the Mets don’t really need, as they aren’t in contention this year, and have a host of young starting pitchers that could be ready by next year. It would be wise for them to deal him and perhaps get a decent prospect in return.
After the Pittsburgh Pirates declined to extend a qualifying offer, the Phillies signed Burnett to a one-year deal for $16 million. It was a curious move, as the Phils weren’t in position to be a contender in 2014. Right now they are 43-55 and occupying last place in the National League East. The 37 year-old Burnett hasn’t replicated his success from last season. His ERA is up from 3.30 to 4.08, and his strikeout rate has dropped from 26.1 percent to 19.2 percent, while his walk and ground ball rates have also declined.
Burnett has lost a tick on his fastball, and his swing and miss rate of 7.9 percent is his lowest since the 2010 season when he pitched to a 5.26 ERA with the New York Yankees. After two very good seasons with the Pirates, his stuff is likely on a downward trajectory. The ZiPS and Steamer projections don’t see a whole lot of improvement over the remainder of the season. As far as the projection systems go, Colon has the slight edge.
Nevertheless, teams are still interested in Burnett, and he’s posted a couple of double-digit strikeout games this year. Maybe some team will catch lightning in a bottle with the talented right-hander. The Baltimore Orioles are supposedly in the hunt. Their rotation has been pretty mediocre this year, though they are in first place nonetheless. It likely won’t cost much to acquire the veteran right-hander, especially with his $16 million prorated price tag.
Beyond Price and possibly Hamels or Lee, the options on the starting pitching market are generally uninspiring. Perhaps the Kansas City Royals will decide to put James Shields on the block, or maybe the Boston Red Sox will pull a surprise and deal Jon Lester. Still, Colon and Burnett could represent upgrades for several contending teams, including the Orioles and Toronto Blue Jays.
