Between April and August 30th of last season, Shelby Miller was very good, posting a 3.32 ERA, with matching peripherals. His strikeout and walk rates were 26 percent and seven percent, respectively. From August 30th and on, Miller was awful. In seven starts, he managed just 18 strikeouts and 16 walks. He was a no-show in postseason play, and while the Cardinals insisted he was fine, a look at his numbers showed that they had good cause for concern.
While Miller has a nice ERA of 3.18 in six starts this season, a closer look shows that he’s far from right. In fact, by at least one measure, he’s been the least effective pitcher in baseball. After Wednesday’s start, Miller has a major league worst 6.18 FIP. Only a handful of pitchers have a worse xFIP than Miller’s 4.88 mark.
Miller’s strikeout rate is improved from his last seven starts of 2013, but at 17.6 percent, it’s still below the major league average. At the same time, he’s walking 14.2 percent of hitters, one of the highest rates around. As if that’s not bad enough, he’s had a major problem with the long ball, surrendering seven home runs in 34.1 innings. He won’t keep running a 20 percent HR/FB ratio, but at this point he’s a pitch to contact guy that walks far too many and gets just an average rate of groundballs.
Right now, Miller simply isn’t missing enough bats. His curveball isn’t showing the sharpness that it did over the first few months of last season, and batters have been laying off it. If there’s reason for hope, it’s that his fastball velocity hasn’t dropped off from last year.
His ERA has been held down by a .237 BABIP and a strand rate around 95 percent. Both of those numbers should regress significantly, and if the strikeout and walk rates don’t improve, Miller won’t be long for the rotation. It’s been quite some time since he’s been a good pitcher, and the Cardinals have reason to worry.
