After two days off, baseball is returning Friday night with the first game of the ALCS. The Baltimore Orioles will send Chris Tillman to the mound while the Kansas City Royals will counter with James Shields. It’s a matchup of postseason unbeatens, as the Royals beat the Oakland Athletics in the wild card game before sweeping the top seeded Los Angeles Angels, while the O’s knocked off the Detroit Tigers in three straight.
Shields, who has been one of the steadiest starting pitchers in the American League since his first full season in 2007, struggled for much of 2014. In his first 21 starts, Shields allowed 69 runs in 136.1 innings, for an RA-9 over 4.50. Since July 23 Shields has been much stronger. He allowed only 26 runs over 13 starts, a stretch in which he’s thrown his changeup more often.
Perhaps that’s coincidental, as Shields’ strikeout rates were very similar over both periods. The moniker Big Game fits more because it rhymes with his first name than because of his postseason performance. In eight postseason starts Shields possesses a 4.96 ERA. He turned in a solid outing against the Angels, allowing two runs in six innings with six strikeouts.
Like Shields, Tillman has pitched much better later in the season. Over the season’s first half he authored a pedestrian 4.11 ERA with a woeful 4.74 xFIP. His strikeout and walk rates were just 14.3 percent and 9.3 percent. In the second half he’s pitched to a 2.33 ERA with strikeout and walk rates of 21.5 percent and 5.1 percent.
Overall, Tillman’s peripherals are less than spectacular, though he’s had a history of his ERA outperforming his strikeout, walks and ground ball rates. One thing that is important to note is that Tillman is nearly impossible to run on. Baserunners have stolen a total of two bags against Tillman in the last two seasons, while they’ve been caught 11 times. The Royals have run wild thus far in the playoffs, but they might have to put that aspect of the game on hold.
Still, that bit of information will probably receive far more than its share of airtime. Though the Royals led the major leagues in stolen bases, that created just 11.5 additional runs over the regular season.
Showalter will probably go to his bullpen early. Against the Tigers Tillman was lifted after five innings, despite the fact that he had allowed just five baserunners. Though he’s pitched very well in the second half, he’s far from an elite pitcher, and the Orioles have several good relievers. Expect the bullpens to do a lot of work in this series.
